Signup for our free newsletter:

What's missing at the NAR... Honesty.

Written By Brian Hicks

Posted January 2, 2008

The NAR’s Lawrence Yun dropped the ball in a big way, according to this Times Online article.

“Last month Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (Nar), called Florida “ground zero for the housing market slump”.

It must have come as some surprise to Floridians who had followed Nar’s other more bullish forecasts.

Last year, according to Nar, existing-home sales would fall 3.7% and new-home sales would fall 4.8%.

Instead existing-home sales for 2006 fell 8.6% while new-home sales fell 17.8%.

Nar’s forecast for this year was again way off the mark. Existing home sales were expected to end 1% lower than the 2006 total, while new-home sales would fall by 9.4%. Nar then cut back its forecasts for nine months in a row. It now expects existing-home sales to fall 12.5% to the lowest levels since 2002.

If anyone’s listening, Nar says new-home sales will continue to suffer next year, but the worst is over for existing-home sales. I wouldn’t pay the deposit on that Florida condo just yet.

So irritating has Nar become that Yun now has his own hater blog (Lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot. com). The same people ran a blog blasting his predecessor, David Lereah.

To be fair to Yun, Lereah seems the more deserving target. Lereah is a classic booster who once advised people it was a great time to buy and to sell.

He is also the author of the 2005 classic, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom will not Bust and Why Property Values will Continue to Climb through the End of the Decade and How to Profit from Them.”

Or watch as Yun explains to Kentucky realtors why they shouldn’t worry about a 30% drop in sales, here.