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The Worst is Just Around the Corner

Written By Brian Hicks

Posted April 13, 2009

T2 Partners, according to sources, just released an updated presentation on why there is more market pain to come, based on mortgage reset/recast schedules. We may have come through the worst of subprime defaults, but Option ARM and Jumbo Prime resets are just around the corner, they say.

But it looks as if great minds think alike. We’ve been warning of this for months in The Trader’s Pit blog. Here’s was our take.

“It shouldn’t come as a shock when mountainous Option ARM and Alt-A loans begin resetting and the second leg of the credit crisis begins.

Alt-A loans were given to borrowers with credit scores of between 620 and 700, and included the option of interest-only loans, option ARMs, and no documentation loans that required little if any documentation for loan approval. Ninety percent of those that got an Option ARM in 2006 provided little or no documentation.

Ninety percent!

And it’s estimated that only 60% of Option ARM borrowers make only minimum monthly payments. Others estimate that up to 80%.

Say a borrower makes minimum payments on a $600,000 loan. That loan could easily be a $750,000 loan within two years.

And we’re supposed to be shocked when this problem ends in the second credit crisis?”

Here’s the T2 Partners take on the issue.

I’d love to hear what you think. You can leave a message below.

And for more on the coming resets, click here.