When I say I’m not an expert, I don’t mean to sound like I am about to say something obvious in a very coy manner.
The truth of international relations is that it is as complicated as advanced calculus and as steeped into the human condition as psychology.
Nothing is obvious until retrospect tells you, oh yeah, I guess Hitler was bent on world domination.
But Iran recently signed a diplomatic nuclear deal to relieve sanctions and ever since, the country has been anything but diplomatic.
And while I am not a conspiracy theorist, I am a realist in the belief that the obvious diplomatic play is not always the one chosen.
So I’ll ask the question: Is Iran trying to pick a fight?
I Thought We Were Friends, Bro?
Okay, no one is so foolish to presume that Iran and the United States are friends, but it did seem like we had an agreement.
President Obama took a heavy toll from Republicans for his willingness to compromise with the regime, and how does Iran repay America?
First, they start testing ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations resolutions, then they start test-firing rockets within a thousand yards of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, and then they seize two United States Navy naval craft and hold 10 sailors in captivity.
If this is what our friends do to us, then I hate to see what happens when they are our enemy.
Oh wait, they chant “Death to America” on a daily basis.
But these recent actions seem odd and out of place to me.
For it almost seems as if Iran is taking on a very provocative path that could easily lead to conflict.
When Iran test-fired its naval rockets, the U.S. Navy got less than a minute’s notice over open channels as a billion-dollar-plus aircraft carrier passed by.
Granted, the carrier could have destroyed the Iranian forces in short order, but not before a heavy toll was taken.
They had seconds, perhaps minutes, to decide that those rockets were not headed for them, and if they were, it would have been too late to do anything about it.
Now, it seems two U.S. navy boats have been taken into custody by the Iranians along with 10 U.S. Navy personnel.
Was that really necessary? Absolutely not, unless you are trying to pick a fight.
You can decide what you will about Iran, but without question, they are doing the exact opposite if you want to calm tensions in what is otherwise the pretty small wading pool of the Persian Gulf.
The Consequence of War
Many act in disbelief that Iran would undertake such an action because the United States would unequivocally destroy the Iranian Navy and any air forces that joined the attack.
Would the U.S. take casualties and damage? Most certainly.
But would it be a lopsided battle? You bet.
But what if Iran is acting in proxy of a larger interest? Say, oh, I don’t know… Russia.
Let us not presume that a conflict, however brief, with Iran wouldn’t distract from the conflict in Syria where the U.S. and Russia are at odds.
Let us not presume that such a conflict wouldn’t give Iran pretext to back out of the nuclear deal, and building consensus in the West for sanctions against Iran would be much more difficult to come by.
You don’t have to think the worst about mankind to see the obvious.
Iran is not acting like a nation trying to avoid a flashpoint with the United States.
Smarter men than I might offer a reason why, but that doesn’t mean it is not happening right in front of our eyes.
Is Obama a lame duck of which the powers of the world are going to seek to take advantage this next year?
Does Iran really want conflict, or is it merely going to do the bidding of the one power that props it up?
In the epic words of Forrest Gump, I may not be a smart man, but I know when someone is trying to pick a fight with me.
And stupid is as stupid does, but Iran might be stupid enough to pick a fight.
