Zandi: Expect 8% Home Price Declines

Written By Brian Hicks

Posted November 1, 2010


The bottom in housing is nowhere in sight…

From CNNMoney by Les Christie entitled: Homes prices expected to slide another 8%

The robo-signing controversy is just another issue that the already sluggish housing market didn’t need — but most analysts do not think it will have far-reaching impact.

Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.

Prime among them are declines in home prices. And while cheaper homes are good for buyers, they also speak to a housing market that won’t stabilize.

Fiserv, a market analytics company, has scaled back its home price projections considerably. In February, it forecast national price gains of about 4% through the end of 2011. The company’s latest prediction is for a 7.1% drop in prices between June 30, 2010 and June 30, 2011.

In fact, after five months of gains, prices in the 20 largest metro areas fell 0.2% in August, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report.

The good news is, “There’ll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics.

But, he added, “more home price declines are coming.”

He’s forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%.

Even after that, in 2012, he sees very little price growth.”

The great fall continues–despite record low interest rates.

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Hitler on ForeclosureGate

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