Lumber and wood producer Masco Corporation (MAS) is seeing its third day of call option buying activity. But don’t be so quick to buy.
October 2008 25 calls are seeing interest after the MAS Executive Chairman bought 300,000 shares of the company on May 28 between $17.80 and $17.99. But unless the stock can maintain multi-year support at current prices, it’ll drop even further with the housing slump, which will continue to wreak havoc on the home improvement and home construction markets.
Understandably, investors want to load up behind the Chairman because they believe the U.S. real estate market will bottom this year. It’s won’t happen, though.
If you thought the subprime fiasco has been economically debilitating since 2007, just wait until 2009.
When you hear of this mythical housing and credit market improvement, ignore the bulls and Wall Street hot shots that’d have you believe in a housing bottom, or the grand illusion of “priced in” credit market weakness.
Subprime mortgage resets may be coming to a near-term end, but Option ARM and Alt-A resets are just around the corner.
What should scare you is this – the coming Option ARM and Alt-A resets are similar to what we saw in early February 2007.
At that time, we said:
“Among the worst hit lenders will be the sub prime lenders, or those companies that make loans to borrowers with less than perfect or poor credit histories. While sub-prime lenders charged higher interest (two or three points higher than prime lenders) as insurance for the higher risk the borrower represented, rising foreclosures have left the sub-prime industry facing substantial fallout risks.
Sub-prime lenders could offer adjustable or teaser rates to those with bad credit. Loans like this made up 23% of the U.S. mortgage market in 2006 as compared to the 8% in 2001, according to Yahoo News. And it’s now a big problem as one in five sub-prime mortgages are now ending in foreclosure, according to the Center for Responsible Lending as mentioned by Yahoo News.
The Lending Market has not bottomed… nor has it priced in all negativity.
I’d love to sit here and jump on the bullish housing bandwagon that dominates Wall Street. Really, I would. But I’m not a fan of flushing my money down the toilet.
In reality, the housing market has not bottomed. Sub-prime lenders are doomed. You can continue to listen to the delusional madness pouring from the mouths of Street analysts, and the mainstream press, or you can listen to the homebuilder CEOs and the sub-prime lenders that have gone belly up because of a weak housing market.
Even JP Morgan’s CEO, James Dimon, is bearish on the sector, saying, “‘Mortgages are the one area of sub-prime lending where we really see something taking place that looks like a recession….'”
That’s just an inkling of the tumultuous future for sub-prime lending.
MortgageDaily.com believed “The sub-prime sector still has another year of tough times ahead.” That’s supported by Countrywide Financial, which says, “We’ve got another eight, nine, 10, 12 months of headwinds. You’re seeing 40 or 50 (sub-prime companies) a day throughout the country going down in one form or another. I expect that to continue throughout the year.”
A recent Center for Responsible Housing report projects that “2.2 million borrowers will lose their homes and up to $164 billion of wealth in the process.
Even MarketWatch.com reported, “Signs of credit deterioration from the slowing U.S. housing market have already shown up in recent results of other banks as more borrowers fall behind. Foreclosures jumped 35% in December versus a year earlier, according to recent data from RealtyTrac. For the fifth straight month, more than 100,000 properties entered foreclosure because the owner couldn’t keep up with their loan payments, the firm noted.'”
Unfortunately, we all know how things turned out. How could you not see the disaster coming?
It’s the same question we ask today… How can you not see the next disaster on its way?
It shouldn’t come as a shock when mountainous Option ARM and Alt-A loans begin resetting and the second leg of the credit crisis begins.
Alt-A loans were given to borrowers with credit scores of between 620 and 700, and included the option of interest-only loans, option ARMs, and no documentation loans that required little if any documentation for loan approval. Ninety percent of those that got an Option ARM in 2006 provided little or no documentation.
And it’s estimated that only 60% of Option ARM borrowers make only minimum monthly payments. Others estimate that up to 80%.
Say a borrower makes minimum payments on a $600,000 loan. That loan could easily be a $750,000 loan within two years.
And we’re supposed to be shocked when this problem ends in the second credit crisis, and we see further housing decay?”
Unless MAS can maintain current support, it’s going to $15. I don’t care how bullish the Chairman appears.