SpaceX Couldn't Get Its Rocket off the Ground — Now the Stock Can't Either

SpaceX just gave Wall Street a preview of what happens when the hype runs out and the hardware doesn’t cooperate.

Shares are trading at $123.99 today — genuinely below the $135 IPO price, not just flirting with it.

And this time, there’s a rocket to blame.

A Launch That Never Left the Pad

Last week SpaceX was set to fly Starship Flight 13, its first launch attempt since going public in June. It would have been a marquee moment — proof the company could deliver on the hardware side while Wall Street argued about the valuation.

Instead, the launch got delayed. And shares fell as low as $124 in after-hours trading on the news alone.

That’s not a valuation debate. That’s the market pricing in execution risk on the one thing SpaceX is actually supposed to be good at: launching rockets.

A new attempt is now targeted for this Thursday, July 23. If it slips again, or if the flight itself runs into trouble, there’s no reason to think the stock reacts any better the second time.

The Damage, in One Number

SpaceX’s market cap has gone from a post-IPO peak of roughly $2.6 trillion to somewhere between $1.6 trillion and $1.75 trillion today, depending on whose numbers you use. Either way, more than $1 trillion in paper wealth has evaporated in about five weeks.

Elon Musk’s own net worth tells the same story. It spiked to $1.32 trillion right after the IPO. It’s since fallen to around $850 billion.

And the setup doesn’t get easier from here. SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company is now set for August 6. Shortly after that, insider lockups start releasing — and recent reporting puts roughly $800 billion in shares becoming eligible for sale by October.

That’s a wall of potential supply hitting a stock that’s already down 45% from its high and can’t get a rocket off the pad without spooking investors.

Where I’d Rather Put My Money

None of this means the space and national security build-out isn’t real. It is. Satellite constellations, missile-tracking architecture for Golden Dome, in-orbit infrastructure — that spending is happening regardless of what SPCX does next.

The question is whether you want to own that trend through a trillion-dollar story stock that just missed a launch window, or through smaller companies already doing the work at a fraction of the price.

That’s exactly why I put together a report on three under-the-radar space and defense players — a launch and satellite manufacturer already flying national security payloads for the Pentagon, a newer space company building infrastructure the government is quietly funding, and a defense contractor whose targeting, drone, and space-tracking systems sit right in the middle of America’s missile defense build-out.

None of them are carrying SpaceX’s valuation. None of them just delayed a marquee launch in front of the whole market.

Get the full report on all three companies here.