- Buffett and Munger Weigh In
- Retail Sales Fail to Excite
- David Lereah Comes Clean
- Countrywide Shares Tumble
- Jose Canseco Takes a Walk
- Home Depot Shutting Down 15 Stores
- Countrywide Strikes Out Again
- The Credit Crunch is Far From Over
Buffett and Munger Weigh In
The Banks are Getting What They Deserve
Friday, May 9th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Here's the word on the ongoing mortgage mess from Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger.
It seems they are all for the creative destruction that capitalism sometimes visits on those who take big risks. This time is no different.
In fact, Buffet even said that, "Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without hell."
I'll let you ponder that one.
Meanwhile, here is the rest of what was on their minds in their latest interview.
From the AP by Josh Funk entitled: Lenders deserve to suffer, Buffett says.
"Billionaires Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger say the pain many financial institutions are feeling because of the credit crunch is well deserved.
The chairman and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said Sunday that the financial companies that engineered subprime mortgages and the investment funds backed by those mortgages don't deserve much sympathy as they record losses now.
Buffett said the current financial crisis is a byproduct of a system that encouraged executives to "paint pretty pictures."
Munger said lots of financial institutions acted with stupidity and overreached to improve earnings in recent years.
"I think you have to start with the idea that a lot of the current troubles are richly deserved," Munger said.
The complexity of the tactics that financial institutions often employ makes it difficult to determine what those companies are worth — even for Buffett.
"There are some financial institutions I can't value," Buffett said.
He said if someone had $1 million to invest in 10 stocks, it would be easier to find good values in the Korean stock market than among U.S. banks because the banks are so complicated.
Buffett said he recently read a 270-page annual report that an investment bank filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and he had unanswered questions for about 25 pages of the report.
"They're cleaning up their act now to some degree because they had to," Buffett said.
Munger said he doesn't think investment banks spend enough time thinking about risk and ways to avoid it like he and Buffett do at Berkshire.
"We try to behave as if Berkshire stock was all owned by crippled relatives," Munger said.
Buffett said the pain isn't over yet for financial institutions, but he said nobody can predict how many more times banks will have to write down the value of their assets.
The largest U.S. bank, Citigroup Inc., alone has taken more than $45 billion of write-downs and credit losses since June 30.
Buffett reiterated that he believes the U.S. economy is in a recession by his definition, even if it hasn't yet met the commonly used criteria of two quarters of negative growth.
He said his definition of a recession is when most people and businesses are not doing as well as they were three, six or nine months ago.
"I would say that we're in a recession clearly," Buffett said."
Now that is a couple of smart guys.
No wonder they are billionaires.
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Retail Sales Fail to Excite
Consumers are Strapped for Cash
Thursday, May 8th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Here's a thought.
Anytime your GDP depends on consumer consumption for the bulk of its growth, you're in trouble—-especially when those same wallets start closing up.
It's just that simple.
Unfortunately, that's exactly where we find ourselves today since consumer spending accounts for 72% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product.
That's a heavy burden in an age of declining real incomes and fast rising prices.
Sure, it worked like a charm when home prices doubled, but now that housing is in decline it has gotten much tougher to maintain.
But in America, there is a way to get blood from a stone. It's called credit, and to many it's their lifeline.
That goes for the overall economy too-buying stuff keeps us afloat.
That's why in the wake of 9/11 we were urged to head off the mall. And it's the reason why the IRS can't get those "stimulus checks" out fast enough these days.
However, the problem is that none of that "free money" solves anything for long.
And when it's all said and done, the truth remains—-we spend considerably more than we earn.
That to me is something of a problem, not a solution.
You see, we used to be a nation that saved and produced. Today, however, all we do is spend and consume.
That's how you end up depending so heavily on consumer spending for growth.
But what happens when those same consumers decide to step away from the game?
That's what's in the news today as consumers struggle to make ends meet.
From AP by Anne D'Innocenzio entitled: Consumers give stores some relief but still spend cautiously
"Consumers gave some of the nation's retailers a little relief in April after months of dismal sales, gravitating toward less expensive discounters and wholesale clubs but generally still shying away from stores selling clothes and other non-necessities.
Monthly sales reports issued Thursday were better than expected, but still pointed to a consumer contending with rising gas prices, sagging home values and worries about jobs. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. were among the top performers last month, while most mall-based apparel stores struggled.
"Consumers are focusing on value and price points and stretching their dollars," said Ken Perkins president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. "They are feeling the pinch on multiple fronts."
He and other analysts expect only a modest uptick in sales in May and June as consumers spend tax rebate checks that are starting to arrive.
"There's too much going on," in the economy, Perkins said. He and others expect shoppers to use the extra cash to pay down debt and catch up on utility and food bills."
Meanwhile, consumers are increasingly turning to their credit cards in an effort to pay the bills.
From Bloomberg by Vincent Del Giudice entitled: U.S. Consumer Debt Rises More Than Forecast in March
"U.S. consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, indicating a slowing economy is forcing Americans to accumulate credit-card and other forms of debt.
Consumer credit increased by $15.3 billion for the month to $2.56 trillion, the biggest monthly rise since November, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. In February, credit rose by $6.5 billion, previously reported as an increase of $5.2 billion. The Fed's report doesn't cover borrowing secured by real estate, such as home-equity loans.
Consumers are turning to credit cards after banks tightened standards for home-equity loans and other borrowing. The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.
``Consumers are strapped as incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. ``The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone.''
Economists forecast an increase of $6 billion in consumer credit for March, according to the median of 34 estimates in a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.
Total borrowing, a key element of consumer spending, increased at a 7.2 percent annual rate in March after rising at a 3.1 percent pace during February, the Fed said.
Household spending grew at the slowest pace since the 2001 recession in the first quarter, according to Commerce Department statistics. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth.
A Fed report two days ago showed the proportion of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record in the past three months.
About half of U.S. banks said they tightened terms on existing home-equity loans, mainly because of declines in home values below appraised values, as well as increased defaults and changes in borrowers' finances, according to the Fed's quarterly survey of senior loan officers released May 5."
So here's my instant analysis: It's getting ugly out there.
After all, you can't borrow your way to prosperity forever.
By the way, here are two charts. One is the personal saving rate and the other is consumer credit. Notice how it all began to change in the early 80's.
That's about when I got my first credit card offer. I was a sophomore in college.
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David Lereah Comes Clean
Ex-Shill Calls for More Pain
Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Shill: (slang)-verb
- to advertise or promote a product as or in the manner of a huckster.
It has been quite a while since we last heard from our favorite real estate guy, David Lereah.
He slipped out the back door a year ago, leaving Lawrence Yun behind to pick up where he left off.
Lawrence, by the way, has done a marvelous job in Lereah's absence, promising on every occasion that now is the right time to buy real estate. Go figure.
Of course, it was his pal Lereah who practically swore that real estate never declines during the bubble heydays.
But now that he is now longer shilling for the National Association of Realtors, Lereah has changed his tune entirely. In fact, in many ways he has finally come clean.
Housing he says now is "not at the bottom" after all.
Gee thanks David.
Here's Lereah's new tune from Newsweek by Daniel McGinn entitled: It's Going to Get Worse
"Whenever a boom goes bust, there's always a round of finger pointing and blame assigning, of people asking "Why didn't the experts see this coming?" So as the housing bust has morphed from a cyclical downturn into a full-blown crisis, there's been no shortage of culprits. Some blame Alan Greenspan for badly orchestrated monetary policy, a charge against which he's lately been fighting back. Some blame the subprime lenders and the brokers who found clients for them; together they underwrote many of the loans that are now causing so many foreclosures and so much pain.
And at least a few observers include an industry economist in this lineup: David Lereah, the former chief forecaster for the National Association of Realtors, whose irrational exuberance for real estate has led to some measure of ridicule.
It's been more than a year since Lereah left NAR, so I called this week to check in. It turns out he has recently set up a new firm called Reecon Advisors, which is advising Wall Street firms and institutional investors about the real estate market. "Wall Street has an intense interest in [this], because they're looking for when is the recovery going to come, and at what point does the cycle turn," Lereah told me.
His answer: not yet. "We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low ... There's still supply out there in abundance ... This thing is going to get worse before it gets better."
Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall. According to the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller index, the average U.S. home has lost around 15 percent of its value since the market's peak. "We're probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I'm wrong it will be even more than that," he says.
That's quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005. There he argued that the solid economy, strong demographics (including immigration and aging boomers), and a lean supply of homes should lead prices to continue rising for years to come. "Today's real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions," he wrote. "With today's economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices.
Oops. "You knew there were a couple of [regional] balloons out there, and [I] said you could have a couple of these balloons pop," Lereah says now. "But I didn't think this would turn into an all-out bursting of a balloon for the whole nation." He, like other prognosticators (including Greenspan), points to his lack of understanding of the profound effects that subprime lending was having on housing markets. "[I] just didn't realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting-not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower," Lereah says. ‘That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late.'"
So nobody could have known huh?
What a clown. Baghdad Bob would be proud.
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Countrywide Shares Tumble
B of A Deal In Trouble
Monday, May 5th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Here's some more news about our favorite troubled lender—Countrywide Financial.
Shares of the mortgage company are tumbling today on the news that two analysts have decided that Bank of America's deal to purchase them is a little rich given the risks.
In fact, one of the analysts, Paul Miller, believes that the deal should be priced for somewhere between $0 and $2 a share. That's pretty big haircut from original the $7 a share offer.
My only question is why did it take so long for someone to figure out how badly this whole deal stinks?
Countrywide, by the way, is worth zero. In fact, the bondholders will be lucky if they get paid back.
Anyway, here's the skinny on the latest news.
From Reuters by Tenzin Pema entitled: Analysts say BofA may lower Countrywide deal price
"At least two analysts said Bank of America Corp will likely lower its purchase price for Countrywide Financial Corp with Friedman, Billings Ramsey analyst saying the bank may bring down its deal price to the $0 to $2 level or completely walk away from the deal.
Friedman analyst Paul Miller, in a note to clients, said Countrywide's loan portfolio has deteriorated so rapidly that it currently has negative equity and the proposed takeover of the company will be a drag on Bank of America's earnings due to the elevated credit expenses at Countrywide.
Miller cut his target on Countrywide's stock to $2 from $7
Bank of America, which in January agreed to buy Countrywide for $4 billion, said in a filing last week there was no assurance that any of the mortgage lender's outstanding debt would be redeemed, assumed or guaranteed.
"Bank of America announced that it might not guarantee Countrywide's debt, which is most likely the first step in renegotiating the entire deal," Miller said. "We estimate that if fair-value adjustments to the loan portfolio could exceed approximately $22 billion, this would increase the odds of Bank of America renegotiating the transaction or walking away."
Miller, however, added that given the rapid credit deterioration and weak secondary market demand, markdowns on Countrywide's loans could easily exceed Bank of America's estimates when the company performed due diligence and the cushion was built into the deal.
He expects markdowns on Countrywide's $95 billion loan portfolio — which includes $28 billion of option adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), $14 billion of home equity line of credits (HELOCs), $20 billion of fixed rate second lien mortgages, and $19 billion of Hybrid ARMs — to be material.
"We believe Countrywide has significant credit risk on its balance sheet, not only in its loan portfolio, but in its subprime and HELOC securities and residuals, its representations and warranties on loans sold, and in loans held outside of banking operations," Miller said.
On Friday, Standard & Poor's cut the credit rating of Countrywide to junk status on concerns that Bank of America may not support as much as $24 billion of the mortgage lender's debt once it completes its proposed takeover.
Countrywide, in a February regulatory filing, had said a loss of its investment grade rating would result in the acceleration of some secured debt obligations and hurt its ability to manage and hedge its inventory of loans.
In addition to increasing Countrywide's financing costs and potentially hurting its ability to attract and retain bank deposits, up to $4.2 billion of its custodial deposits could be transferred to another bank if it were cut below investment grade, the company had said."
Hmmm now let see what we've got here.
There are $34 billion dollars worth of second mortgages that will likely get wiped out and $28 billion dollars of loans in the most toxic mortgage of program of all time—option arms. That doesn't even begin to consider the rest of the mess that Countrywide brings with it to the deal.
Any way you cut it, it kind of looks like a death spiral to me.
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Jose Canseco Takes a Walk
Former Star Gives His Home Back to the Bank
Friday, May 2nd, 2008 - By Steve Christ
I always wanted to be a sportswriter. Unfortunately, this is as close as I'm going to get it these days.
Here's the latest news on former baseball star Jose Canseco.
It's not steroids this time that has him in the spotlight, but the housing bubble.
You see, Jose has had some time to think about it and has decided to take walk. He has sent his lender some jingle mail.
You just can't make this stuff up.
From the Wall Street Journal by Jonathan Karp entitled: Home Run: Canseco Lets House Go Into Foreclosure
"Former baseball star Jose Canseco has drawn perhaps the most unusual walk of his colorful and infamous career: Faced with sinking property prices and heavy legal fines, he has abandoned a multimillion-dollar home in suburban Los Angeles and let it lapse into foreclosure.
Mr. Canseco, a one-time American League most valuable player who ignited controversy by later admitting he used steroids and accusing fellow players of doing the same, becomes perhaps one of the highest-profile homeowners to walk away from a mortgage.
"He made a mathematical decision and just let it go," said Gregory Emerson, Mr. Canseco's lawyer.
Mr. Canseco bought the 7,300-square-foot home in Encino, Calif., for nearly $2.8 million in 2005, according to public records. He transferred partial ownership to a trust last year, according to Mr. Emerson.
That trust defaulted on mortgage payments in October, and foreclosure was recorded in February, public records show.
The house already had at least one lien placed on it, from the Internal Revenue Service, and a judgment stemming from a 2005 court ruling in which Mr. Canseco and his brother Ozzie were found liable for a 2001 brawl in a Miami Beach nightclub. Together, the liens and judgment totaled some $1.3 million, according to Mr. Emerson and Tina Cameron, Mr. Canseco's real-estate agent.
"Given that there were liens on the house and the market had gone down, he made the decision to let it go," Mr. Emerson said. He said that the decline in property values alone meant that Mr. Canseco's equity in the house had fallen by about $1 million."
Of course, you have got to give Jose credit for one thing. He sure knows how to keep his mug in the spotlight.
Have a great weekend.
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Home Depot Shutting Down 15 Stores
Big Boxes are Going Empty
Thursday, May 1st, 2008 - By Steve Christ
If you're looking for signs of a weakening consumer, here's another one. Home Depot has decided to close 15 stores over the next two months.
Poor performance is the reason. It is a dubious first for the renowned big box chain.
From AP by Harry R. Weber entitled: Home Depot to close 15 US stores, cites poor performance.
"Nearly 7 1/2 months after its chief executive said there were no plans to cut the number of its core retail stores, The Home Depot Inc. announced Thursday that it is shuttering 15 of them amid a slumping U.S. economy and housing market. The move will affect 1,300 employees.
The Atlanta-based company said Thursday that the underperforming U.S. stores being closed represent less than 1 percent of its existing stores. They will be shuttered within the next two months.
The stores to be closed consist of three in Wisconsin, two in Ohio, two in New Jersey, two in Indiana and one each in Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, New York and Vermont.
A company spokesman said some of the employees will be relocated, while others could lose their jobs.
Spokesman Ron DeFeo said Home Depot has only closed one of its flagship stores previously because of structural damage.
The company reiterated its intention to open 55 new stores in the 2009 fiscal year.
Due to the store closings, Home Depot will record a charge of roughly $186 million, including inventory markdowns of $11 million and severance of $8 million. It also will record a charge of roughly $400 million related to development costs and ongoing obligations associated with the future store locations that it is scrapping.
New store capital spending will be reduced by $1 billion over the next three years, Home Depot said.
On Sept. 21, 2007, Home Depot CEO Frank Blake told The Associated Press that the company had no plans to make any broad-based job cuts or reduce the number of its core retail stores in the face of a persistent housing slump that wasn't expected to improve anytime soon.
Since then, the economy and the housing market woes have grown worse, and Home Depot has announced several rounds of job cuts.
In December, Home Depot said it would cut 950 jobs and close three call centers that handle orders for home installation. The next month, Home Depot said it would cut 500 jobs at its headquarters."
By the way, yesterday's GDP numbers were not all that they were cracked up to be.
That .06% growth in the first quarter was largely the result of three key, but dubious factors.
- Deficit spending increased. Big surprise.
- Inventories grew.
- An assumption of a 2.6% inflation rate, when everyone knows it's 4%.
So in short, the fix on this one was in. Without them it's negative.
So while we may not have reached the technical definition of a recession, that truth is that yesterday's GDP report does confirm that economic activity is either flat or declining outright. But we knew that already. Didn't we?
How else do explain it when Home Depot stores are closing?
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Countrywide Strikes Out Again
Lender Loses Big in 1Q
Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Somewhere in his private moments, Angelo Mozilo must be laughing his head off today.
After all, Angelo "earned" $10.8 million last year and cashed in on $121.5 million in stock gains as his company, Countrywide Financial (CFC), got absolutely hammered by losses on idiotic mortgage loans. Not a bad payout.
In fact, all told Mozilo made over $450 million on sales of CFC stock as the company he founded began to fall apart.
But his best work was saved for Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis.
That's because somehow Angelo and his friends managed to convince Lewis to buy his sinking boat before it went to the bottom. Now that's what I call a slick salesman.
Here, by the way, is the latest earnings report from the troubled lender. It is ugly.
The troubled lender lost $1.60 a share in the 1st quarter, which was in another universe compared to the 2 cent profit that most analysts were expecting.OOPS.
Here's the skinny.
From AP by Alex Veiga entitled: Countrywide loses $893 million in 1Q on rising loss reserve
"Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender and servicer, said Tuesday it lost $893 million during the first quarter due to a sharp increase in its provision to gird against unpaid home mortgage loans amid a deepening housing downturn
The latest results marked the third consecutive quarterly loss for Countrywide, which agreed in January to sell itself to Bank of America Corp. for about $4 billion in stock.
Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide said it lost $893 million, or $1.60 per share, for the quarter ended March 31 compared with earnings of $434 million, or 72 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier.
Revenue plunged 72 percent to $679 million from $2.4 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast earnings of 2 cents per share.
The results were hurt as the company was forced to set aside $1.5 billion to cover loan losses, up from $158 million in the year-ago period. Charge-offs, or loans written off as not being repaid, totaled $606 million during the quarter, compared with $39 million in the same quarter last year, the company said.
The lender raised its reserve for credit losses to $3.4 billion by the close of the quarter.
Countrywide said the increase in credit-related charges were driven by rising mortgage delinquencies and defaults. Falling home values also forced the lender to cut back its previous expectations for home prices in its loan portfolio.
The mortgage lender recorded an impairment charge of $347 million during the quarter related to securities backed by home equity lines of credit.
Because of continued deterioration in the credit markets, Countrywide also took a loss of $394 million as it transferred loans to a held-for-investment portfolio."
So somewhere while Angelo is chuckling, Kenneth Lewis must be kicking himself a bit.
Of course, it will be interesting to see if Bank of America really does close this deal, because it is getting more and more questionable by the day.
August can't get here fast enough for Angelo. Suckers.
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The Credit Crunch is Far From Over
Morgan Stanley: "We are only in the third inning"
Monday, April 28th, 2008 - By Steve Christ
Bill Miller has seen better days. Unfortunately, so have the shareholders of his renowned fund, the Legg Mason Value Trust.
Miller's famous fund fell on hard times in 2006 due a series of bad bets on stocks decimated by the housing bubble. Since then it has only gotten worse.
Those ill-timed investments broke his famous streak of beating the S&P 500 for 15 straight years.
But if anything, Miller is an eternal optimist. Even today, he's still bullish on the same stocks that have only punished him.
In fact, in a letter to his shareholders last week, Miller said he was still sticking to his guns.
"Most housing stocks are up double digits this year despite dismal headlines, a sign the market had already priced in the current malaise. I think likewise we have seen the bottom in financials and consumer stocks, but not necessarily the bottom in headlines about the woes in those sectors," Miller wrote.
Moreover, Miller told his clients, "I think we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us. I think the credit panic ended with the collapse of Bear Stearns, and credit spreads are already much improved."
Of course, there are only two things wrong with all of that rosy analysis.
The first is that the bottom in housing is nowhere in sight.
And the second is that the credit crunch—that Miller insists is behind us—is far from over.
Here's why. It's simple arithmetic.
The latest estimates peg the banking losses now at a monumental $1 trillion. That's not a typo.
It's trillion with a "T". That is four times the inflation adjusted amount of damage from the S&L crisis.
And considering the fact that we have only written down about $250 billion of those losses, it kind of makes you wonder where the other $750 billion is hiding.
Add in the fact we are already in a recession, and it makes you wonder also about the wisdom of Miller's latest call.
So are we half way home as Miller and some other analysts suggested last week or much farther out?
Well here's what the analysts at Morgan Stanley think: They say we're only in the third inning.
That sounds about right to me.
From Reuters by Joesph A. Giannone entitled: Morgan Stanley see big bank woes just beginning
"Morgan Stanley analysts on Monday told clients to "sell the rally" in financial stocks, slashing forecasts for big bank earnings and warning that the current credit crunch is only just beginning.
In aggregate, Morgan Stanley reduced its estimates for 2008 large bank earnings by $17 billion, or 26 percent, and reduced 2009 forecasts by $13 billion, or 15 percent. The analysts expect higher loan losses and expenses, offset by higher net interest income, though profits could fall further still if the Federal Reserve stops lowering interest rates.
"More capital hikes and dividend cuts (are) coming as our credit deteriorates and forward earnings decline," analysts led by Betsy Graseck wrote in a report. "We think we are only in the third inning of the credit cycle and expect this credit cycle will be worse than (the slump in) 1990-91."
Morgan Stanley's top "long" picks have less credit sensitivity or better capital structures: Bank of New York Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co and PNC Financial Group.
By contrast, investors should "underweight" banks with greater exposure to mortgages — Wells Fargo & Co and Wachovia — and those that operate in harder hit sections of the United States — Fifth Third Bancorp and KeyCorp
Morgan Stanley also called for underweighting Citigroup, citing its exposure to risky assets relative to common equity."
By the Way, it was Miller who also said this: "How do I know when I'm wrong? When I can no longer get a quote."
Of course, it may just come to that for some of those stocks he is still so bullish on.
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