Case-Shiller Index: The Housing Recession is Not Over

Posted March 29, 2011

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I hate to say I told you so…but it’s true.

The double dip in housing is well underway.

From Bloomberg by Alex Kowalski entitled: Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fell 3.1% From Year Earlier

“Residential real estate prices dropped in January by the most in more than a year, raising the risk that U.S. home sales will keep slowing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.1 percent from January 2010, the biggest year-over-year decrease since December 2009, the group said today in New York.

Rising foreclosures are swelling the number of houses on the market, which may put additional pressure on prices in coming months. At the same time, a further decline in home values may keep potential buyers on the sidelines as they foresee better deals, hurting construction and consumer spending as owners’ equity evaporates.

“Prices will continue to move downward probably for the rest of the year,” said David Semmens, a U.S. economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, who correctly forecast the drop. “They won’t turn around until you have consumers feel that housing is genuinely cheap and until they feel a lot more secure in their labor-market position.”

Another report showed consumer confidence dropped in March ad Americans grew more concerned about the economic outlook. The New York-based Conference Board’s sentiment index fell to 63.4 this month from 72 in February, the research group said.

“The housing market recession is not yet over,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.”

The hits in housing just keep coming…

By the way, The chart below shows the price levels for the 10-city and 20-city composite indexes. Both indexes are back to their summer 2003 levels:

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