SpaceX Stock Implodes in 72 Hours

In the month and a half since it went public, SpaceX stock has shed a third of its value. And it’s down almost 50% from its peak.

But in 72 hours, things are about to get a whole lot worse. Because that’s when close to 1 billion shares representing $116 billion in value could hit the market.

Just to recap…

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12. It popped 19% on day one to close at $160.95. And four days later it hit an all-time high of $225.64.

But today it trades around $113 — below the offer price, less than half its peak, and still falling going into the two biggest catalysts of its brief life as a public company.

You see, SpaceX reports Q2 earnings on August 4, and that report triggers an insider share unlock.

Then, just two days later on August 6, the broader IPO lockup expires.

Together, that’s roughly 911.5 million shares, worth about $116 billion at current prices, suddenly free to trade.

Per SEC filings, the number of shares eligible to hit the market in the days after earnings could stretch as high as 1.37 billion.

Musk’s own shares, as well as those held by a small circle of insiders, stay locked until mid-2027.

So this isn’t Musk selling. It’s everyone else — early employees, pre-IPO investors, venture backers — who’s been waiting since June for their first chance to get out.

In all that time, they’ve been watching their potential returns spiral. And on top of that, the bond market has all but confirmed that the company is grossly overvalued.

Remember, this is a company whose bonds carry a BBB investment-grade rating — but they trade like junk.

As of early July, SpaceX debt was pricing at a credit spread of 1.62 percentage points over Treasuries — wider than the average BB junk bond spread of 1.55 points and nearly double the average BBB spread of 0.92 points.

S&P is projecting negative free cash flow through 2029.

Moody’s has flagged Musk’s concentrated voting control as a governance risk that limits real board oversight.

And SpaceX’s 30-year bond spreads have stretched to nearly 2 full points — the same quiet widening that showed up in mortgage-backed paper before the 2008 crisis.

Now, amid that backdrop, $116 billion worth of stock is about to come free.

Of course, none of this means the space economy isn’t real.

It is — and it’s still in the early innings of a build-out that’s going to mint fortunes over the next decade.

But SpaceX clearly isn’t the way to play it.

It’s where the dumb money went.

The marquee name, the meme-stock hype, a valuation that priced in perfection before a single lockup ever expired.

The smart money is already looking past it, to the smaller companies that are actually building out the launch, satellite, and space infrastructure supply chain.

The ones that don’t come with a $116 billion overhang attached.

I’ve laid out three of them in my latest report, which you can find here. Give it a look if you want to avoid a rocket-sized stock implosion.