Market Rainstorms and Media Panic: Why a 15% Drop Is Nothing to Fear

You can always tell when the financial news cycle gets bored…

All it takes is a quote — a casual comment from someone in a suit — and suddenly every anchor, blogger, and clickbait headline writer springs into action like pigeons startled off a park bench.

That’s exactly what happened when Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick recently said they expect the stock market to drop somewhere between 10% and 15% in the next year or two.

You’d think they’d just predicted the apocalypse or that we’re headed for another Great Depression…

Literally every mainstream outlet went wild with headlines like “Wall Street Titans Warn of Major Market Drop” and “The Party Might Be Over.” Cue the ominous background music.

But if you actually listen to what these guys said — and more importantly, if you understand how markets work — you realize there’s nothing new, nothing shocking, and absolutely nothing panic-worthy about any of it…

The Most Boring “Prediction” in the World

Let’s get something straight right up front: Predicting a 10%–15% correction sometime in the next two years is like saying, “It might rain next spring.”

Congratulations — you’re going to be right. Because that’s what happens every spring.

The stock market, like the weather, has seasons.

Since 1992, the S&P 500 has experienced at least two 5% drawdowns every single year.

It has also had at least one 10% correction nearly every year, and on average, a 20% bear market about once every two years.

That’s not a crash. That’s normal. That’s the breathing pattern of a healthy, functioning stock market.

Pullbacks shake out the weak hands. They cool off overheated valuations. They give long-term investors a chance to buy quality companies at a discount.

If you’ve ever watched a forest regenerate after a fire, you know that temporary destruction leads to long-term growth. Markets work the same way.

So when Solomon and Pick say, “We might see a 10%–15% drawdown in the next two years,” they’re not warning of doom.

They’re just describing the cycle that’s kept happening over and over for the last 100 years.

The Media’s Favorite Sport: Manufacturing Fear

Of course, that doesn’t sell advertising…

No one clicks on a headline that says, “Markets May Dip Like They Always Do, Everything Fine.”

Instead, we get the financial news version of a horror movie trailer. “Experts Warn of Major Downturn!” “Brace for Impact!” “Wall Street CEOs Sound the Alarm!”

And the kicker?

Most of the people writing those headlines have never managed a dollar of client money, never built a portfolio, and couldn’t tell you the difference between a limit order and a market order if their paycheck depended on it.

They’re liberal arts majors who wandered into finance because someone at the paper needed a “money beat.”

Now, don’t get me wrong… I’m not knocking English or journalism degrees. Writing is an art.

But when the people reporting on markets don’t understand markets, what you get isn’t financial insight. It’s financial theater.

And the public — bless their hearts — eats it up. Because fear sells.

You, on the other hand, already know better. You’re reading this because you want context, not clickbait.

You know the difference between a pullback and a panic. And that means you’re already ahead of the herd.

A Little History Lesson (Teacher Hat On)

Let’s do a quick tour through recent market history, because the numbers tell a far more rational story than the headlines ever do.

• In 1997, the S&P 500 dropped about 10% during the Asian financial crisis — then gained nearly 30% by year’s end.
• In 2011, stocks fell 19% during the European debt scare. The following year? They climbed 16%.
• In 2018, markets corrected nearly 20% when the Fed threatened higher rates — and by mid-2019, they were back at record highs.
• In 2020, during the COVID crash, the market fell more than 30% in just a month… and then went on to double within 18 months.

See the pattern?

Every time the market stumbles, the media shouts “crisis.”

Every time, investors who panic and sell lock in their losses.

And every time, those who stay calm — or better yet, buy when others are scared — come out ahead.

Corrections aren’t roadblocks. They’re speed bumps.

Why the Bankers Are Right (And the Media Are Wrong)

Let’s give the CEOs their due, though…

David Solomon didn’t say “a crash is coming.” He said a 10%–15% drawdown is likely — and that’s healthy.

His exact phrasing: “A 10%–15% drawdown happens often, even through positive market cycles.”

Ted Pick echoed the same sentiment, saying that we should welcome “10%–15% drawdowns that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect.”

In other words, markets that never pull back are more dangerous than ones that do.

And that’s the part the media conveniently left out.

They didn’t tell you these guys were actually being optimistic. 

They were saying, “This is normal, and it’s good for the system.”

Markets go up. Markets go down.

But over time — through every panic, crash, correction, and recovery — stock markets go up more than they go down.

That’s the entire history of capitalism in one sentence.

What Smart Investors Do During “Scary” Headlines

Here’s the part they don’t teach in journalism school…

Every major bull run in history has been punctuated by corrections.

If you were alive in the 1970s, you remember inflation, oil shocks, and doom everywhere.

Gold soared, the Dow stagnated… and then came the Reagan-era boom.

The dot-com crash of 2000 wiped out trillions — but the survivors (like Amazon and Apple) became trillion-dollar empires.

The 2008 financial crisis wrecked global confidence — and created once-in-a-generation buying opportunities in blue-chip stocks, real estate, and commodities.

And every one of those moments came with the same soundtrack: “This time it’s different.”

But I’m here to tell you that it never is.

Because corrections aren’t signs of the end. They’re resets that mark a new beginning.

Smart investors — people like you — know that when CNBC’s graphics turn red and the anchors’ voices tremble, that’s the signal to get greedy when others are fearful.

You don’t chase euphoria; you accumulate value.

The Teacher’s Final Lesson: Context Is Everything

If you remember one thing from this, make it this: Volatility is not risk.

Risk is what happens when you don’t know what you’re doing. Volatility is just the price you pay for being in the game.

Every 18 months or so, the market goes through a correction…

Every couple of years, we get a full-blown bear market…

And every single time — without fail — the market climbs to new highs afterward.

That’s not optimism; that’s history.

The media can shout, the pundits can posture, and the algorithms can panic.

But the data is clear. Long-term investors who ignore the noise and stick to disciplined buying win every single cycle.

So the next time you see a headline screaming “Goldman Sachs Predicts 15% Drop!” take a breath, smile, and remember: That’s not a prophecy.

That's someone forecasting that there will be at least one sunset in the next 24 hours.

Your Move: Buy the Dip, Ignore the Drama

When the next 10%–15% drop hits — and it will — don’t let the panic push you out. Let it invite you in.

Treat corrections the way seasoned investors do: as opportunities to own great companies at markdown prices.

Because while the media are out there chasing clicks, the real money is made by those quietly accumulating assets when everyone else is afraid.

That’s how fortunes are built. That’s how markets work. That’s how you win.

So yes, it might rain next spring. But I’d advise you bring an umbrella, not a panic button.