U.S. national debt will exceed $14.5 trillion by the end of the summer.
The government has been underwater so long, it has gills…
But despite their desperate condition, the Feds still have a few tricks up their sleeve that will allow them to keep “kicking the can” down the road.
One of the gimmicks they’ve cooked up to stave the wolves off is becoming more and more evident: Iraqi Dinar Revaluation.
The dinar collapsed after the United States invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. Prior to U.S. invasion, the Iraqi currency was trading over USD3 to one Iraqi dinar on the strength of the country’s massive oil industry.
After the collapse, the dinar was trading significantly lower. At one point, a single dollar purchased one thousand Iraqi dinar.
Speculators began to take positions in 2004 hoping someday, the dinar would recover and the UN economic sanctions would be lifted, allowing the currency to be revalued. Since then, there has been much speculation regarding how and when that would occur.
But here’s the really interesting part…
The U.S. Government is the Largest Holder of Iraqi Dinar Outside of Iraq
Does that really come as a surprise?
The U.S. Treasury does not officially list the Iraqi dinar as part of the country’s forex reserves.
|New Iraqi Dinar
see detail of 50 dinar bill
However, the Treasure does say it did an initial currency swap with Iraq to fund their government and Ministries…
Exactly how many dinars were traded is not mentioned, but it does make reference to “billions of U.S. dollars” traded to Iraq.
About two months ago, Iraqi dinars could no longer be purchased; the recent Dodd Frank bill appears to have legislation related to the revaluation of a foreign currency and preventing mass hysteria.
From what I have been able to gather, it sounds like this plan was originally put together by George Bush, Dick Cheney, Alan Greenspan, and others years ago as a way for the U.S. government to be repaid (read: get kickbacks) for their efforts in Iraq.
Experts speculate the U.S. government received nearly 4 trillion Iraqi dinars at an exchange rate of 4,000 dinar to USD1.
If this is even close to true — and the UN allows Iraq to revalue their currency up to USD1: one Iraqi dinar — the U.S. government would stand to profit in trillions… as would anyone else who speculated on the dinar over the years.
Bush’s statement, “This is a war that will pay for itself,” will be true 10 times over.
Check out how the House of Saud got taken for $267 billion of their own crude oil.
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Speculating on these matters, however, is essentially useless. There is little to nothing that can be done to change it now.
Rather, our attention should be focused on what we can do to protect ourselves and establish security for the future before the house of cards finally topples.
And I maintain the best place for investors right now is portfolio positions in physical precious metals, quality mining and mineral exploration stocks, and more recently, cash.
I typically don’t keep a lot of cash in my trading accounts. But I think it’s important to keep a little cash in your portfolios right now, because I believe we will see some exceptional buying opportunities within the junior mining sector in the next six to eight weeks.
Significant Buying Opportunity Coming in Junior Mining Stocks
There is still a very limited market for junior mining stocks among large financial institutions as seasonal traders have left for the summer — and the retail market still hasn’t figured it out yet.
The junior mining sector, despite the high metals prices across the board, is getting very little attention from mainstream investors. This will cause even the best companies to weaken as the summer months slumber along.
You can clearly see this in the TSX Venture, which comprises about 50% junior mining companies:
From the recent high of over 3,400, we are now below 2,000. I believe we may test the 1,700 level before we begin to solidify toward the end of summer.
But these next six weeks or so will provide us with some great opportunities to look for real value within our market.
The only thing that will buck this downward trend in the coming weeks is individual junior mining companies that announce exceptional news, such as great drill results or a press release of a joint-venture agreement, merger and/or acquisition news.
In general, it looks like the balance of the summer will be tough overall for our junior mining shares.
Junior mining stocks — particularly junior gold stocks — have been underperforming their respective metals.
In the past 18 months, gold prices have increased over 35%, yet gold equities have had difficulty keeping up.
CIBC Analyst Barry Cooper recently wrote, “The net result is that gold companies can now be purchased for about their intrinsic value for the spot price of bullion.”
This lag in junior gold stocks, as well as in the overall junior mining stock market, will carve out a beautiful buying opportunity for investors to take a position at historically low prices compared to bullion.
When all is said and done, I believe 2011 will be another banner year for precious metals and their respective mining and exploration shares.
Analyst, Wealth Daily
Investment Director, Mining Speculator and Insider Alert