Editor’s Note: Ian Cooper has a more up-to-date report explaining peak oil for the dummies and the experts. Click here to read…
If you don’t understand what peak oil is, don’t write about it. Don’t even comment on it.
You don’t look too bright…
Take these two for example.
“New advanced drilling techniques for drilling oil have revolutionized the domestic oil industry in North Dakota, and will likely also open up new oil production in other parts of the world in the near future like the Alberta Bakken in Canada. That’s one reason that “peak oil” is peak idiocy: it always underestimates the ultimate resource – human capital (i.e. human ingenuity and the resulting innovation, advances, new technology) – which is endless and boundless, and will never peak,” says one report.
And there’s this genius, who says, “While the peak oil theorists keep consistently declaring that the world oil is going to peak and that society is going to collapse soon afterwards .But these peak oil theorists only consider conventional onshore oil while making their apocalyptic prophecies but they do not consider the development of new technologies that have enabled the extraction of heavier and unconventional oils like tight oil, bitumen tar sands, extra heavy oil, oil shale. Considering that there are considerable hydrocarbon resources , also in the various tight oil basins like Bakken formation … peak oil is just a myth and is still far away.”
Obviously, there are too many basic concepts of peak oil they don’t understand.
Peak oil does not mean the world is running out of oil. It is the name for the point when we can no longer produce “cheap oil” to keep up with demand. There is plenty of oil to be found… but it has become more difficult to find and produce. It has also become too expensive to be brought out the ground.
But let’s assume they were right for a second. That would mean these groups are all idiots, too, and believe in the “myth” of peak oil:
The United States Joint Operations command
Lloyds of London
The International Energy Agency (IEA)
The German military
Editors of Wealth Daily
Editors of Energy and Capital… and on and on.
The IEA – once accused of downplaying peak oil risks – just released its 2010 World Energy Outlook, which says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006 with a production of 70 million barrels a day.
Peak oil isn’t about running out of oil; it’s about passing the peak flows in global oil production.
It’s not only real — it’s already happening…
Even though there’s plenty of investment, the huge and cheap reserves we need to find aren’t there anymore. It’s why we’re looking at deep water, oil sands, and oil shale in the United States, for example, going after the “harder to reach” supply.
It’s why we’re investing so heavily in companies that can get to the hard-to-reach sources — if they can get to it, they’ll be worth more to everyone.
The wolf eventually showed up
Critics have called peak oil alarmists “the boy who cried wolf” for years.
Let me be the first to tell you the wolf has arrived.
And it’s not just individual analysis pointing to peak oil dangers anymore. Countries and major corporations are as well. Heck, even the International Energy Agency is warning of it.
Saudi Arabia knows there’s a problem. They’ve tried to hide it for years…
Every 15 years, according to Robert Hirsch, the Saudis have said they hold 258, 262 billion barrels of oil.
“That’s not plausible,” he says. “Because they’re producing something like 3.5 billion barrels per year. That would mean that they’ve been finding roughly 3.5 billion barrels each year for 15 years. It’s statistically impossible.”
“You’re talking about finding something that is very elusive, and also the way discoveries take place is that you find the big fields first and then you find smaller ones. So to say that you find exactly as much as you’re producing, is… the probability of that for two years may be 50, 60%. The probability of that over 15 years is zero. It just cannot work that way.”
So, don’t listen to the Saudis — or the notion that they want to double oil production over the next 10 years.
There might even be tons of oil in the Arctic or in deep waters; in tar sands in Canada, or heavy oils in Venezuela…
But projects like these take years to develop; oil doesn’t just come out of the ground magically.
Meet Peak Oil
We’ve been reporting on peak oil realities for years. We even wrote a best-selling book on the issue.
Peak oil is very real.
The only thing worth arguing about is the definition of it…
As I said earlier, peak oil is not about oil supply; it’s about oil production.
It refers to the peak in flow rates of oil, and the peak oil crisis concerns our inability to find oil on the cheap.
The United States has already reached its peak oil date. In fact most oil producing countries have reached their production peaks — and the days of discovering easily accessible, conventional crude are behind us.
The era of cheap oil is gone
According to the IEA’s latest oil report (published in August 2010), global demand will reach 86.6 million barrels per day this year, and is expected to hit 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011. That means demand could pass an all-time high of 86.9 million barrels per day (as seen in 2008).
Every barrel that will come to market will be much more difficult to produce, and therefore much more expensive.
Just ask Germany and England — nations well aware and fearful of this fact.
Or ask respected analyst Charles Maxwell.
Peak oil isn’t real?
Please. As if we’d be dumb enough to make this stuff up… or create a story wild enough to get sued by the SEC for oil price manipulation.
It’s alright if you still don’t believe us…
Just don’t say anything or report on things you just don’t understand. Okay?