Time to Buy? We May Have Just Hit the Bottom

They say March comes in like a lion, but this year it’s seemed more like a wrecking ball.

Stocks have been smashed almost entirely across the board, with even formerly hot sectors suffering setbacks.

Of course, I’m a buy-the-dip guy. And I stand by that even in times like these.

In fact, especially times like these.

Because pessimism seems to be peaking. And if recent history has taught us anything, it’s that the economy is more durable than many investors give it credit for.

Remember, it was just about a year ago that the market was tanking due to the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs.

But over the course of the year, the market was able to shrug those declines off, along with stubborn inflation figures and middling employment numbers.

Now high energy prices and a readjustment regarding the outlook for rate cuts are playing spoiler.

But that could change overnight.

On Monday, the markets shot higher when Trump said his administration was talking to Iran.

Trump has vacillated plenty on the war, but he’s frequently said the operation would only last a matter of weeks. He’s also acknowledged that there’s simply not much left to bomb.

There’s no question this war has caused real and lasting damage to important energy markets. But oil’s quick drop and the market’s lively rebound show how much of a risk premium has already been baked in.

In many ways, this month’s market tumble has been based on speculation regarding the war’s negative effect on the global economy rather than actual data.

Furthermore, if we get even a moderate decline in oil prices, we could see the central bank warm back up to rate cuts — especially when Trump’s hand-picked nominee, Kevin Warsh, takes over as Fed chair.

To use a favorite word of Jerome Powell’s, this spike in oil prices may prove to be transitory.

And if the conflict with Iran comes down to a simmer, then the market’s focus could shift back to the broader health of the economy.

Specifically, employment which is part of the Fed’s dual mandate along with taming inflation.

After all, prior to the war’s outbreak, Wall Street was pricing in multiple rate cuts — largely because the economy had shown signs of weakening.

And to that point, the latest employment data showed that the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, instead of the previously estimated 584,000. That’s a far cry from 2024, when the U.S. economy added 1.46 million jobs.

There’s also a lot of consternation — a total lack of clarity — on how many jobs could be undercut by AI.

U.S. employers attributed nearly 55,000 layoffs to AI in 2025, as major firms like Block and Meta have announced massive workforce reductions, in some cases cutting up to 20%–50% of staff.

Nobody likes inflation, but Americans have largely fought through it these past few years. Not having a job is harder to overcome than paying more for goods and services or having to cut back.

So, again, I say buy the dip. Because in a few weeks or months we the world and the outlook for the global economy could look very different than they do today.

I’d especially consider adding precious metals — which have been hammered by the recent upswing in Treasury yields — defense contractors, and oil majors like Exxon and Chevron.