The Silent Signal in Gold

Jason Williams

Posted July 11, 2025

Something strange is happening in the world of gold stocks — and barely anyone’s talking about it… We’re in the middle of a rally. Gold prices are up. Gold miners are up.

gold silent signal

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), the go-to ETF for gold stock investors, is climbing higher and higher. That should mean investors are piling in, right?

Well… not so fast.

In a twist that defies normal ETF behavior, GDX's share price has been rising while the number of shares outstanding has been falling

gold silent signal chart

That’s not just a weird technical quirk. It’s the chart I was talking about, and it’s a flashing neon sign that tells us something major…

This rally is happening without broad investor participation.

And that’s a huge opportunity for you…

ETFs 101: What’s Supposed to Happen

Before we go deeper, let’s take a quick pit stop at ETF mechanics.

When an ETF like GDX sees increased demand — when more investors want to buy in — the fund’s authorized participants (basically the middlemen between the market and the ETF itself) create new shares to meet that demand.

And when they create new shares, the share count goes up.

But when demand falls, they redeem shares (essentially canceling them out) and the share count drops.

So, normally, rising share prices and rising share counts go hand in hand…

Higher prices mean more investor interest. More investor interest means more shares get created. It’s pretty easy to understand the connection.

But GDX is doing the opposite.

Prices (the yellow line in our chart du jour) are climbing, but the number of outstanding shares (the white line) is shrinking.

That means investors aren’t rushing in yet — even though the trade is working.

What That Tells Us About Sentiment

This divergence is a rare and powerful sentiment signal.

It tells us that the recent rally in gold stocks hasn’t been driven by retail investors or institutions aggressively buying into the sector.

It’s likely happening because a small group of early movers — hedge funds, value hunters, contrarians like us — are scooping up shares while everyone else is either distracted by tech, still licking their wounds from past gold slumps, or simply not paying attention.

This isn’t euphoria. It’s not even mild enthusiasm. It’s a rally happening in a vacuum of disbelief.

That’s the kind of setup contrarian investors dream of.

When the Crowd Shows Up, It’ll Be Too Late

Here’s the thing about markets… They eventually catch on.

Price leads narrative. And once enough gains stack up, the same people who ignored or laughed at gold miners will suddenly convince themselves they loved the sector all along.

But by then, the easy money will be gone.

This is the “recognition phase” of a bull market.

The early phase has already started. Prices are moving, but sentiment hasn’t caught up.

The next phase is when mainstream investors come flooding in, pushing prices into the stratosphere.

In the case of gold miners, that crowd could cause a parabolic move. Why?

Because the gold mining sector is tiny compared with broader markets.

It takes just a small reallocation of capital — from generalist funds, from retail traders, from momentum chasers — to cause a huge surge in price.

Think of it like trying to fill a shot glass with a fire hose…

The gold sector just isn’t built to absorb big inflows gracefully. That’s why the biggest moves often come late in the cycle, when everyone piles in at once.

And if that crowd shows up while gold itself is breaking out to new highs? We could be looking at one of the biggest gold rallies in history.

The Disconnect That Could Make You Rich

Let’s be blunt: The gold sector right now is wildly underowned.

Gold has pushed back toward all-time highs.

Miners are rallying.

Inflation remains sticky.

Global conflict is simmering.

Central banks are buying gold hand over fist.

Yet U.S. investors are still on the sidelines.

That’s a disconnect. And disconnects like this don’t last forever.

Eventually, the macro narrative will flip…

The financial media will rediscover gold.

Momentum algorithms will kick in.

And the laggards (the GDX buyers who ignored it at $28 but suddenly love it at $62) will come stampeding into the sector.

You have a rare window right now. A moment when prices are rising without the crowd.

That doesn’t happen often. And it doesn’t last long.

If you can spot it and act before the floodgates open, you can ride the next wave before it becomes obvious.

Gold Miners vs. Gold: Where the Bigger Gains Are

If you’re bullish on gold, gold miners are where the real leverage is.

They’re like gold with a turbocharger…

A 10% rise in gold can easily translate into a 30%, 50%, or even 100% move in the right miners, especially the smaller, high-quality ones that aren’t on Wall Street’s radar yet.

And in a scenario where the masses finally start rotating into the gold trade, that kind of leverage becomes even more explosive.

We’ve seen this before…

During the 2009–2011 bull run, some gold miners rose 500%, 800%, even 1,000% or more as capital flooded the sector.

If history even rhymes, the setup we’re seeing now could be the beginning of another major move.

Enter: Digital Gold

Now let’s talk about a new twist — one that could take the idea of owning gold to a whole new level.

You’ve heard of tokenized assets…

Bitcoin paved the way.

But now we’re seeing a whole new category emerge: tokenized gold, backed 1-to-1 by verified, in-ground gold resources.

We’re talking about real gold, verified under NI 43-101 or JORC standards, embedded in the ground and linked to a digital token.

One of the most exciting new developments in this space is NatGold — a tokenized gold asset designed to give you exposure to verified in-situ gold.

Think of it as investing in the gold sector without the cost overruns, the operational risk, or the dilution that plagues traditional junior miners.

Instead of waiting for a mining company to raise funds, drill holes, and maybe someday deliver ounces, NatGold gives you direct exposure to the resource itself, verified and locked to the token.

It’s a smarter, more efficient way to play the gold bull market. And best of all, it’s still flying under the radar.

Final Word: Get in Before the Crowd Wakes Up

We’re in a moment of rare clarity.

Gold is moving. Miners are rising. The crowd is still asleep.

And a new form of gold exposure — tokenized, verifiable, digital gold — is being born right in front of us.

You can wait for CNBC to start running gold headlines and for GDX to double from here. You can wait for your neighbor to start bragging about their gold ETF returns. Or…

You can move now — while the biggest gains are still up for grabs.

Reserve your NatGold tokens today, before they hit the open market and demand goes vertical.

Join the thousands of early adopters from all over the globe who’ve already spotted this opportunity and are positioning themselves for the next chapter in gold’s bull market.

This could be the gold rush of our time.

Don’t miss it.

To your wealth,

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Jason Williams

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After graduating Cum Laude in finance and economics, Jason designed and analyzed complex projects for the U.S. Army. He made the jump to the private sector as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley, where he eventually led his own team responsible for billions of dollars in daily trading. Jason left Wall Street to found his own investment office and now shares the strategies he used and the network he built with you. Jason is the founder of Main Street Ventures, a pre-IPO investment newsletter; the founder of Future Giants, a nano cap investing service; and authors The Wealth Advisory income stock newsletter. He is also the managing editor of Wealth Daily. To learn more about Jason, click here.

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