Taiwan Is the Next Ukraine

Last week, the Trump administration rolled out a 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine.

It was immediately decried as fully lopsided in Russia’s favor. Nevertheless, as the war drags into its fourth year, Russia is making meager-but-meaningful gains and President Trump is out of patience.

On the campaign trail, the Nobel Peace Prize aspirant claimed he could end the war on Day 1 of his administration. But now even the goal of resolving it in Year 1 seems far-fetched.

Trump has vacillated between blaming Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his old friend Vladimir Putin for the impasse. But with this latest proposal, it seems he’s once again soured on Ukraine, which is now under pressure to accept the terms of a deal devised without its input.

It’s unlikely the plan will be adopted in its current form, and barring some miracle breakthrough, the war will undoubtedly rage into 2026. But it will probably end there — somehow, some way.

Of course, if you think that means the world will return to a more peaceful place, don’t get too excited.

For one thing, Europe knows all too well the dangers of appeasement. So even if the Trump administration succeeds in coercing Ukraine into a Russia-friendly settlement, the rest of the continent will continue to ready itself for the next confrontation.

Indeed, if Putin is able to cripple Ukraine’s military and seize a vast portion of its territory, it’s only a matter of time before he comes back to finish the job.

Other former Soviet republics, and even the likes of Poland and Germany, must be prepared for renewed Russian aggression, as well.

In the meantime, a whole separate fire is set to break out in the Pacific.

Indeed, amid all the discussions surrounding Ukraine, Japan got into an especially ugly diplomatic row with China last week.

When asked how Japan would respond if China conducted a military blockade of Taiwan, the country’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said she would likely intervene militarily.

"I believe any action involving the use of force, such as China deploying naval ships, can only be described as a survival-threatening situation," Takaichi said.

While it’s long been assumed that an attack on Taiwan would be met with some form of resistance from Japan and other neighboring countries, it was the first time a Japanese prime minister ever said so directly.

And it infuriated Beijing.

China's Defense Ministry spokesman said any interference over Taiwan would result in Japan's "crushing defeat." And the country’s consul general in Osaka said that "the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off."

Four Chinese warships were dispatched to Japan’s coastline.

And Beijing attempted to undermine economic ties between the two countries by issuing a safety warning to tourists, travelers, and students urging them to stay away from Japan.

More severe sanctions could follow — and it wouldn’t be the first time.

In 2023, China imposed a blanket ban on imports of all Japanese seafood amid another diplomatic spat. And when Japanese authorities detained a Chinese fishing captain in contested waters in 2010, China halted rare earth exports to its island neighbor.

However, this latest demonstrates an increased sensitivity to the Taiwan issue. Over the past decade, China has steadily ramped up military operations in the region with live fire wargames and cyberattacks.

And U.S. intelligence has warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping set 2027 as the deadline for his country’s military to be prepared to invade Taiwan.

So, again, even if the war in Ukraine mercifully ends in 2027 — and even if Russia takes years to recover from its own losses and rearm before launching another assault on Eastern Europe — a Chinese invasion of Taiwan looms heavy on the horizon.

Of course, President Trump knows this, which is why he’s leaned so hard into the Golden Dome defense initiative.

As with Ukraine, the United States is likely to be drawn into another massive third-party conflict — even a potential global conflict — whether we like it or not.

Now is the time for investors to prepare for that inevitability, as well.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins

Simpkins is the founder and editor of Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses on companies with assets — tangible resources and products that can hold and appreciate in value. He covers mining companies, energy companies, defense contractors, dividend payers, commodities, staples, legacies and more… He also serves as editor of The Crow’s Nest where he analyzes investments beyond the scope of the defense sector.

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