Stay Cool and Profit

It’s been a wild few weeks huh?

In fact, it’s been a wild year.

Remember, at roughly this point in 2025, markets were tanking amid the implementation of President Trump’s tariff policy.

Simultaneously, the government was roiled by the Department of Government Efficiency — the pet project of a South African billionaire who literally wielded a chainsaw as he delightedly put people out of work.

Trump’s immigration policy wrought more chaos as the national guard was deployed to American cities, protests erupted resulting in deadly conflicts with ICE, and thousands of people were forcibly removed from the country.

And now we have an impromptu war that’s quickly consumed the Middle East — an energy market linchpin and one of the world’s most vital commercial hubs.

It didn’t take long for the consequences of this dubious effort to become apparent. After remaining relatively subdued at the war’s outset, the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on oil assets and infrastructure across the region are now taking a toll.

Oil prices have now blown past $100 per barrel with some blends fetching as much as $120.

And stocks, conversely, are plunging on the prospect of a prolonged disruption that could badly undermine economic growth.

It’s not pretty, but it is temporary.

I don’t know how and I don’t know when, but I can promise you this…

This war — despite being labeled by many a “forever war,” a term I absolutely hate — will come to an end like all others before it.

I know it’s ugly right now, but you have to work with chaos and volatility — not against it.

So what can one do?

Well, first, investors can lean in.

This war is an outstanding example of why I invest so heavily in defense contractors and defense tech.

Companies like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and RTX (NYSE: RTX) and Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) are all up over the past month, whereas the S&P 500 is down more than 4%.

The Dow, meanwhile, is down 6.5%.

Energy plays are viable, as well.

I’ve been bullish on Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) for quite some time now…

I wrote this article back in October. It’s up 34% since then. It’s also up 1.3% in the past month — which may not be as much as one might expect given the circumstances.

Higher oil prices are an unequivocal positive for integrated oil majors like Exxon. And the fact that it’s still trading below its February high seems to suggest the market has been slow to respond to its improved outlook.

At the very least, Exxon should continue to hold its own in even the toughest of markets and pay out a solid dividend in the process.

Ditto for Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which yields almost 4%.

Those would be great places to hide if this spirals into a full-blown energy crisis.

I think it’s also a good time to be buying precious metals.

Gold and silver have been on a massive tear, but this war reignited the appetite for U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven.

That’s strengthened the dollar and taken the steam out of the precious metals bull. But again, I don’t expect that to last.

I simply can’t imagine this ill-conceived military operation is going to convince the rest of the planet that they ought be buying what the U.S. government is selling.

And to that point, I don’t think the American public is buying the White House line on Iran, either.

Polling shows it as being terribly unpopular. And it will only become less tenable the longer it drags on and the more disruptive it becomes.

President Trump is keenly aware of how the public perceives him and his policies — especially with a midterm election coming up in November.

And despite the president’s unwavering commitment to his strongman persona, he can read polls, stock charts, and gas signs just like everyone else.

So while he’s publicly demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender and a hand in regime change, I’d be positively shocked if he wasn’t already looking for an off-ramp as the political and economic costs of this foreign policy folly mount.

Furthermore, the February jobs report was horrendous. And Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed chair comes to an end in May.

Powell will immediately be replaced by Trump’s hand-picked successor, Kevin Warsh, who got the job by pledging to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy.

The bottom line is that there are plenty of places to turn to safeguard your money while we weather this storm.

Defense contractors and energy companies top the list.

There are some bargains to be found, as well, including opportunities to stock up on gold and silver.

No matter what, just don’t panic. Leave that to the amateurs. We’ve been here before.