Peace Out of Reach: Europe Gets CLOSER to War With Russia

Jason Simpkins

Posted December 8, 2025

President Trump would like nothing more than to bring the war in Europe to an end. 

But Europe isn’t cooperating. 

Russia refuses to abandon its invasion unless it’s granted a wishlist of rewards for its effort. 

And Western Europe is determined to put up a firewall that prevents Vladimir Putin’s land grab from going any further than it already has.

Indeed, for countries on Europe’s eastern front — namely Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, among others this war is existential. 

If Ukraine falls, they could well be next. 

And in fact, the war has already spilled over.

Russian drones have been loitering around European airports and military installations. Some of them have even been shot down.

Russian ships are dragging their anchors through the Baltic Sea as a means of severing subsea energy and communication cables.

Russian agents blew up a railway in Poland that was being used to transport aid to Ukraine.

And cyberattacks have escalated to the point that NATO is threatening to retaliate or even launch a “preemptive strike,” according to Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of the alliance’s military committee.

“We are studying everything… On cyber, we are kind of reactive,” Dragone said. “Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something that we are thinking about.”

Naturally, Russia has responded with indignation insisting that NATO is somehow the aggressor and threatening to respond with military force.

“If Europe suddenly wants to fight us and starts, we’re ready right now,” Putin boasted after Ukrainian drones targeted its shadow fleet of oil tankers last week.

“If this continues, we will consider the possibility of retaliatory measures against the vessels of those countries that assist Ukraine in committing these piracy acts,” he said.

As for peace, the Trump administration’s 28-point Kremlin appeasement proposal was flatly dismissed by major European powers, and changes they made to it were bluntly rejected by Putin when officials flew to Moscow last week.

“It is clear that Russia does not want peace, and therefore we need to make Ukraine as strong as possible,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

And some officials are going even further than that.

Russia is “preparing for a confrontation by 2030 with our countries,” said France’s top general, Fabien Mandon, said last week — adding that his country must be ready “to lose its children.” 

It’s a grim warning that few European politicians publicly acknowledge but Europe’s growing defense budgets don’t lie. 

Almost every member of NATO 25 of 32 countries now meet or exceed the alliance’s 2% defense spending guidance. That's up from just three a decade ago.

And earlier this year, the alliance committed to further raise that spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035. 

European states already spend about as much as Russia does on defense — roughly $380 billion. But if they follow through on the 5% target, that figure could eclipse $900 billion in the next few years. 

And that’s not all. 

The EU has deployed two new fiscal initiatives to further accelerate defense spending under an umbrella program called “Readiness 2030.”

The first is the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program — a $174 billion fund that gives EU members low-interest loans for defense investments.

When the deadline for loan applications passed on November 30, 19 countries had applied and the fund was fully subscribed. Poland the most vocal proponent of higher defense budgets led the charge, asking for more than $50 billion.

And secondly, the EU passed what it calls the National Escape Clause (NEC), which exempts an additional portion of defense spending from the bloc’s deficit rules. 

That rule change alone could unlock another $750 billion in military spending.

So forget what the politicians are saying and just follow the money. 

Everybody wants peace in Europe, but no one actually believes we’ll get it. 

That’s why European countries are loading up and investors should, too. 

Indeed, whatever happens with the broader global economy, rising defense budgets are going to keep defense contractors rolling in green for the next decade. 

And if you want to know the very best investments in the defense space, check out my latest report on President Trump’s AI Victory Plan. It details the small, cutting-edge tech firms that are poised to run circles around defense majors like Lockheed Martin in the years ahead.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins Signature

Jason Simpkins

Simpkins is the founder and editor of Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses on companies with assets — tangible resources and products that can hold and appreciate in value. He covers mining companies, energy companies, defense contractors, dividend payers, commodities, staples, legacies and more… He also serves as editor of The Crow’s Nest where he analyzes investments beyond the scope of the defense sector.

For more on Jason, check out his editor’s page.

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