It's Time to Trust the Butcher

Jason Williams

Posted September 11, 2023

Few movies we thought were hilarious decades ago have really “held up” as time has passed.

Captain Ron is one of them. I watch it every time we’re about to go out on a long voyage on the boat. It helps me remember that “if anything's going to happen, it’s going to happen out there.”

But I’m thinking about another movie that, in my humble opinion, also stands the test of time…

And that’s the Chris Farley classic Tommy Boy.

In the movie, Farley plays the ne’er-do-well son of a successful businessman who dies suddenly, leaving the future of his business in the hands of said feckless son.

The movie follows Farley and his real-life friend David Spade as their characters travel the country trying to save accounts and sell more brake pads to keep the factory open.

And it’s packed with quotable lines and gut-bustingly hilarious scenes. I highly recommend you give it a watch if you’ve never seen it (or watch it again and see if it’s as good as you remember).

One of those scenes, and the extremely quotable line that helps make it so funny, keeps coming up in conversations I’ve been having about the lithium industry lately.

In it, Farley’s character points out that he can get a good look at a T-bone steak if he sticks his head up a bull’s backside, but that he’d rather take the butcher’s word for it.

It’s uncommon wisdom for the character and it’s wisdom that can be applied to many things in life.

Today, I want to apply it to investing…

Because there are a ton of analysts and researchers out there trying to tell you what’s going on in the lithium mining industry.

They’re trying to predict supply and demand well into the future despite having little actual experience with metals, mining, or lithium at all.

They’re sticking their heads up the bull’s bottom to get a better look at the meat.

But they could just ask the butcher how the steak is looking today.

And he’d tell them that it’s looking good but it’s going to cost a whole lot more in a year or two…

The REAL Lithium Experts

You see, I used to work as an analyst for a massive institutional investor. And I know a little bit about what qualifies as expertise on Wall Street.

It’s got nothing to do with actual experience in the field. It’s all about how long you’ve studied a particular industry.

If you’ve been reading about lithium for a few years, then you’re an expert in it, according to those banks.

Neve rmind that you’ve never even seen any outside of the battery in your cordless trimmer…

But that reminds me of another highly quotable quote, which I’m probably going to butcher here because I’ve only personally heard it in Spanish…

“I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.”

And the thing is that none of those experts on Wall Street or the financial news networks have ever actually done anything other than read about stocks (i.e., hear and see).

So how can they truly understand something they’ve never done? Simply put, they can’t. And they don’t.

And that’s why you need to stop listening to them and start listening to the real experts: those who do the doing.

Because those who do, those who are actual experts in the field of lithium production, have a very concerning message for you…

“We’re Not Mining Enough!”

You see, lithium producers are getting very anxious that delays in permitting, staffing shortages, inflation, and the generally slow growth of the industry are going to prevent them from supplying enough lithium to meet soaring global demands.

They’re worried that the EV revolution, the transition to alternative power sources for energy generation, and the whole push toward renewables and electrification could stall out.

And they’ve got good reason to be worried…

Permitting a new lithium mine takes years and there’s a ton of red tape.

Staffing it is getting harder and harder, too.

And then, once you’re all set, staffed, and ready to go, current extraction techniques take about two years to yield any usable lithium.

"You could end up in a crisis situation where the battery companies don't have the security of [lithium] feedstock," says Stu Crow, chairman of Lake Resources, someone with a lot of actual experience “doing” lithium mining.

Lithium mining super-giant Albemarle expects global lithium demand to exceed supply by at least 500,000 metric tons (half a million tons!) in 2030.

That’s less than a decade down the road.

This one chart really says it all:

lithium supply demand imbalance

Within just a few years, the world is going to be looking at a lithium supply shortage that will only get worse and worse as demand grows exponentially and supply isn’t able to keep up.

That’s going to have a dual impact:

First, it’s going to slow the pace of the EV and renewable energy transition to one that might make a snail feel fast.

And second, it’s going to drive up the prices of lithium to previously unseen and unimaginable levels.

It could single-handedly derail the EV industry, the renewable energy industry, and the consumer electronics industry all at the same time.

You Call THAT a Plan!?

According to that chart and the projections of many actual experts within the lithium production industry, we’ll need to add the equivalent of about 400 new lithium mines' worth of production just to meet demand.

And for reference, there were 45 lithium mines operating in 2022. Eleven more were supposed to be open by the end of this year. And seven more are scheduled to open in 2024.

That’ll bring the grand total of new mines up to a whopping 18. So we’ll "only" need to add another 382 more in the next six years.

That sounds pretty feasible, right?

Of course, I’m kidding. That’s not feasible at all.

And if our only solution is to add 10 times the number of mines currently in operation within the decade, we don’t have a solution at all.

But fortunately, we don’t have to hang our hats on that outlandish and near impossible plan…

This Changes EVERYTHING!

Because a new technological breakthrough is starting to make its way through the industry.

And just like fracking opened up millions of barrels of previously inaccessible oil here in the U.S., this new lithium mining technique is going to open up millions of tons of previously inaccessible lithium.

Instead of taking years to extract the lithium and get it ready to be used in batteries, this new technology accelerates the timeline to just a few days.

Plus, while current methods are able to access about 40% of the lithium in a resource, this new technique unlocks 90% of it (sometimes even more).

So not only does it make the process of extracting the metal 99% faster, but it also extracts nearly all of the available lithium, leaving almost nothing to waste.

It’s going to drive end users to the small companies willing to take a chance and pioneer this new breakthrough.

And it’s going to completely change the structure of the industry, helping tiny firms who take advantage of this new mining tech take the top spots from the incumbents who are too set in their ways to evolve.

It’ll drive profits to small startup operations 99% of investors have never even heard of. And that’ll make them the biggest players in this rapidly growing field.

But more than all that, this breakthrough technology is likely going to be the ONLY thing that allows the EV revolution and transition to alternative energy to keep going.

Without it, we’re stuck in the dark ages when it comes to producing lithium. And we’re never going to be able to keep pace with the demand the future will bring.

So I highly recommend you take a little time to learn more about this new lithium extraction technique and the companies that are implementing it successfully in the field.

Then get yourself invested, because the biggest gains are right around the corner.

To your wealth,


Jason Williams

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After graduating Cum Laude in finance and economics, Jason designed and analyzed complex projects for the U.S. Army. He made the jump to the private sector as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley, where he eventually led his own team responsible for billions of dollars in daily trading. Jason left Wall Street to found his own investment office and now shares the strategies he used and the network he built with you. Jason is the founder of Main Street Ventures, a pre-IPO investment newsletter; the founder of Future Giants, a nano cap investing service; and authors The Wealth Advisory income stock newsletter. He is also the managing editor of Wealth Daily. To learn more about Jason, click here.

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