Global Economy 2011

Brian Hicks

Updated September 8, 2011

Economists will tell you we’re not in a recession and that the odds of one are low.

They happened to say the same thing in 2008 — six months after it had already begun.

Fact is we’re already there.

And most of the world is joining us.

Why We’re Right — AGAIN

It was 2010 when the White House told us all was well. “We’re in a continued recovery that just ‘won’t feel terrific’,” said Helicopter Ben.

But it wasn’t really true — and Bernanke knew that, doing nothing more than kicking the can down the road. 

Alas, he’s run out of road…

Now we’re falling off a cliff.

Hiring is weak. Consumers aren’t happy (as seen in confidence numbers) and debt is rocketing as jobs are lost. Housing is still crumbling. Jobs creation is circling the drain.

Europe is teetering on the brink of insanity. The global banking system has trillions of exposure to Greek, Irish, Spanish and Italian debt. China’s economy is slowing.

Gold is racing to $2,000. Silver is running to $50.

The “recovery” we were promised in the second half of this very year looks to be nothing more than a pipe dream…

Is Anybody Listening?

Yet, economists aren’t concerned.

They don’t seem to be worried about a recession, further downside in housing or market technicals, as seen in the latest Barron’s cover story.

But these economists are salesmen, much like the real estate agents who are saying “now” is a good time to buy — regardless of when “now” is — and if you don’t buy now, you’ll be priced out forever because, say Barron’s experts, the S&P 500 could rally 11% higher from here!

Perhaps it’s this very belief in the financial community that would explain how the market can rally 10% in two weeks’ time when there is no positive news to justify such a move…

Even Goldman and Dr. Doom are Afraid

By Goldman’s doomsday accounts in their “secret” 54-page report (only meant for institutional eyes), European banks need $1 trillion of capital. China’s growth is not sustainable. And solving a debt problem (ours) with more debt doesn’t work.

Think about that.

A top Goldman analyst is telling clients that “solving a debt problem with more debt has not solved the underlying problem. In the U.S., Treasury debt growth financed the U.S. consumer, but has not had enough of an impact on job growth. Can the U.S. continue to depreciate the world’s base currency?”

That’s some scary stuff.

We really are headed for an economic meltdown — and that’s because U.S. debt is not sustainable. The only reason we haven’t collapsed yet is because of this debt-fueled fantasy we’ve been living.

But the crash is coming.

Dr. Doom’s Q4 Forecast

According to Wealth Wire, Dr. Doom has just released his fourth quarter forecast. As you can imagine, it ain’t pretty.

He’s predicting a probable recession. And he doesn’t think the Fed can do much as “we are running out of policy bullets”; but he thinks as we do, there will be more quantitative easing anyway.

He even gave it a date: QE3 Coming, September 21.

QE3 is Back on the Table

There’s a very real possibility of QE3 coming to a printing press near you by late September 2011.

It’s likely to send the markets much higher while masking the housing and unemployment issues that lie beneath.

Will the Fed’s pump of more than a trillion dollars really make much of a difference?

Not likely. What we really need to see is a boost for housing and the job market. Without these, there is no real recovery.

Yes, every round of easing has lead to higher returns on the greater market. QE2 rocketed the markets off 6,500 lows in 2009, all while hiding the fundamental problems with housing and unemployment. QE3 can do the same…

dow chart 090711

The safest thing to do here is buy gold and silver.

We’re telling investors the same thing we’ve been telling them since 2007’s subprime headache…

The absolute worst thing you can do is panic. Take a deep breath. Have a plan in place.

Know where and how to invest properly. Invest with options and metals.

Panicking, and frantic selling is not good practice to making profits. Patience, smart investing, and having a plan do.

We’ll get through what’s coming together… with our pockets loaded with green.

Stay Ahead of the Herd,

Ian Cooper Signature

Ian L. Cooper
Analyst, Wealth Daily

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