Facebook's (NASDAQ: FB) Plan to Kill the Smartphone

Written By Jason Stutman

Posted April 22, 2017

Earlier this week, Facebook held its annual F8 developer conference, making its grand ambitions in the fields of augmented and virtual reality — alongside a few other emerging technological trends — known to the world.

In an incredibly telling demo, Mark Zuckerberg showcased Facebook’s new social app, “Spaces,” which allows users to interact with their friends or family in a virtual, three-dimensional environment.

Represented by cartoon avatars, users will be able to meet face to face with anyone else using an Oculus VR headset. The Spaces app, while by no means perfect, does give us a glimpse into the future of consumer technology and human interaction in general.

Facebook VR Spaces

At first glance, Spaces may seem like a gimmick, even a bit unnatural. But it’s important to keep in mind that the same feelings were once prominent during the transition from paper to telephone, telephone to text, and so forth.

That is, there’s a long history of humans doubting and mocking the benefits of new forms of communication.

When I was your age…

These kinds of curmudgeonly attitudes are nothing new. They date as far back as 400 B.C., when Socrates argued that the written word could not effectively teach anything worth knowing.

Yet here we are today, recognizing Socrates thousands of years later because of the written word.

But the written word isn’t the only major advancement in communication to have its utility mocked and questioned.

In 1920, for instance, Harvard University published a piece in its Nature journal decrying the evils of electricity and the telephone. Looking back today, the text is pretty humorous.

The telephone is the most dangerous of all because it enters into every dwelling. Its interminable network of wires is a perpetual menace to life and property. In its best performance it is only a convenience. It was never a necessity.

Or how about in 2007, when Blackberry (Research in Motion) CEOs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie notoriously discounted the iPhone’s groundbreaking interface, suggesting that touch screens weren’t worth pursuing.

Balsillie’s last famous words?

“We’ll be fine”

Perhaps my favorite story of all, though, surrounds the invention of the printing press.

In 1492, a monk by the name of Johannes Trithemius authored the work De laude scriptorum manualium, which translates to “In Praise of Scribes.” Trithemius argued that the act of manual writing impressed ideas on the mind, and that copying text would dilute that effect.

In short, he didn’t want the printing press to replace the work that monks were doing.

Yet two years later, in 1494, Trithemius decided it was time to spread his message to the masses. How did he manage to do it? By resentfully agreeing to have De laude scriptorum manualium printed via press.

The point is, us humans are no less resistant to technological change today than we were at any other point in history. When a new paradigm emerges, there will always be naysayers out there, but these people, more often than not, end up eating their own words not too far down the line.

And when it comes to Facebook’s Spaces app, or at least applications like it, things aren’t going to be any different. The idea of meeting with your friends in a virtual world might seem ridiculous today, but in five to ten years’ time, it will be as routine as sending a text.

But a virtual space is just one aspect of Facebook’s roadmap. The company doesn’t just want to put you in a video game; it wants to make your real life into one, too.

That is, Facebook is going all in on augmented reality.

Facebook’s Augmented Reality Reveal

On top of its VR Spaces app, Facebook is also adding advanced augmented reality features to your phone using new camera tools. This means its app can overlay virtual objects that live in and interact with the real world. The idea is similar to features we’ve already seen in apps like Snapchat and Pokémon Go, but Facebook is taking it a few steps further.

Point your phone at your kitchen table and watch as sharks swim around your morning coffee. Add effects to your room like decorative paintings, or conjure a few rain clouds that flood the space with virtual water.

Using a location and collision detection technology known as SLAM, Facebook allows users pin objects on walls in various locations. Perhaps you want to leave your spouse a note on the fridge, or recommend a microbrew to your friends at the local pub.

For now, these kinds of AR features will be limited to your phone, but during his F8 presentation Zuckerberg made it clear that the end game is something else entirely. Instead of having to look at a handheld screen, you will eventually have everything right in front of your face:

Facebook AR glasses

And this is exactly what I’ve been clamoring on about for over a year: the transition to an entirely new consumer electronics device: the death of the smartphone.

It won’t happen today or tomorrow, but it is right around the corner.

Michael Abrash, chief scientist of Facebook-owned Oculus Research, said during F8 that augmented reality glasses will replace smartphones in the next five years. Personally, I see it happening sooner.

But no matter the timeline, investors need to know that this is going to shake up the technology industry, and a number of stocks, in a very big way.  

Until next time,

  JS Sig

Jason Stutman

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