What Pokemon Go Tells Us About the Future of Mobile

Written By Jason Stutman

Posted July 17, 2016

If you haven’t heard of Pokémon Go by now, there’s a good chance you just might be living under a rock. It doesn’t really matter whether you play the game or not; the story here is much bigger than what appears at first glance.

The story of Pokémon Go extends well beyond childhood memories, geeky subculture, and even the price of Nintendo’s stock… it represents the humble beginnings of an entirely new age in human history. For investors, it represents one of the most compelling growth stories on the market.

What is Pokémon Go?

For those of you still out of the loop, Pokémon Go is the latest craze in mobile apps — a free-to-play video game where you hunt down adorable monsters known as Pokémon in the real world using GPS mapping. It’s essentially a form of geocaching cleverly wrapped in millennial nostalgia.

The basics of Pokémon Go’s gameplay are as follows: You download the app, you create a Pokémon trainer, and you immediately begin receiving notifications on your phone or tablet about nearby Pokémon. The first Pokémon will be placed conveniently right in your vicinity, but as the game progresses you will be forced to get up off the couch and venture out into the real world to find more.

What separates Pokémon Go from standard geocaching is that instead of going outdoors to collect physical objects, you’re interacting with images of Pokémon superimposed on top of real life. By accessing your mobile device’s camera, Pokémon Go is essentially able to bring Pokémon out of the screen and into the third dimension.

Pokemon Go

Released just this month, Pokémon Go’s unique augmented-reality gameplay has already resulted in a multitude of unexpected situations, ranging from humorous to heartwarming to downright frightening.

By placing creatures, items, and “Pokémon gyms” in real-world locations, Pokémon Go is drawing players to places they wouldn’t normally go. Some players are stumbling upon the notorious Westboro Baptist Church. Others are accidentally discovering (real) dead bodies in their quest to become a Pokémon master.

In some cases, Pokémon Go has proven something dangerous. Armed robbers are reported to be frequenting isolated locations and victimizing unsuspecting Pokémon Go players. One man’s home was turned into a “Pokémon Gym,” highlighting legitimate harassment and privacy concerns.

Of course, these are the stories the media will focus on most because the scenarios are simply so bizarre. More frequently, though, the game is actually managing to do something quite more telling: It’s lifting players off their couches, out of their basements, and bringing them together in droves.

Pokemon Go Unity

The image above certainly makes a powerful statement, but not just about Pokémon Go or even the transcendence of racial tensions which have coincided in the latest media cycle: It provides an early glimpse into the power and universal draw of augmented reality as an emerging technological force.

Pokémon Go: A Herald of Something Far Greater

Following the release of Pokémon Go, I began to receive a stream of messages from friends who know that I cover stocks for a living. Typically an uninterested bunch (most people my age still haven’t begun to seriously follow the markets quite yet), these friends were suddenly asking me all about Nintendo stock. In the wake of Pokémon Go, shares have climbed as much as 68% — an $11 billion valuation increase in just a few days — and I couldn’t hear the end of it.

Pokemon GO Nintendo Stock

As much as it delighted me to see a sudden spark of interest in the market from my usually apathetic peers, most of them seemed to be missing the bigger picture. “I wish I bought Nintendo stock,” many were lamenting — but the reality is that Pokémon Go is just a flash in the pan and a herald of something far more profitable.

It takes a lot to justify an $11 billion valuation increase, and from any experienced investor’s standpoint, the truth is that Pokémon Go just doesn’t cut it. The game has an estimated 7.5 million downloads and an average daily revenue of $1.6 million. This works out to about $584 million a year, meaning that, at $11 billion, Pokémon Go is being priced at 18.8 times sales. From a valuation standpoint, the numbers are atrocious (Nintendo is bound to crash back down), but the price hike still hints at the market’s incredible appetite for virtual and augmented reality.

The thing is, you don’t have to be a visionary at this point to realize that the next step in computing is to move beyond the screen. While the hype over Pokémon Go will soon fade — just as the hype over all video games eventually fades (i.e. Candy Crush) — the platform and underlying technology is something that smart investors will continue to keep their eyes on.

While Pokémon Go is technically a form of augmented reality, the truth is that it’s not terribly convenient or advanced. Your mobile phone can only act as a small window into the augmented world, which is why the age of the smartphone is inevitably on its way out.

Exactly what comes next is still unknown, but chances are good it will come in the form of computerized glasses and eventually contact lenses. Once these products become functional and inconspicuous, you can say goodbye to the dominance of products like the iPhone altogether.

Just as has happened with the PC, the reign of two-dimensional mobile devices is at the beginning of its end. The question you need to ask yourself as an investor is what comes next?

Until next time,

  JS Sig

Jason Stutman

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