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The Wrath of the "Mortgage Moms"

By Steve Christ
Wednesday, September 6th, 2006

First it was the "soccer moms." And then it was the "security moms." But today, according to a story in the Washington Post, our nation's political future is now in the hands of the "mortgage moms."

And given the state of today's housing market, they are clearly on to something.

According to The Post the recent and coming reversal of fortunes in the housing market has created a nation of nervous moms. Anxious moms really, who believe their financial futures are in jeopardy due to the softening housing market.

And as we have learned in the past, when it comes to elections, it is these middle class moms that hold all of the cards.

And as the party in power, the Republicans have been put on notice.

"People like this are making a large ripple across the body politic," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. Worry about the coming crunch "is creating a political environment that is not friendly to the party in power,' he added.

All of which, of course, is something of a contradiction, given that unemployment is low and that economic growth is relatively strong. In past election cycles, these would have been strengths for incumbents. But not this year. This time it's different

And maybe we should chalk it up to women's intuition.

Because the truth is that these moms have good reasons to be worried.

You see, flat wages and rising debt levels have made millions of middle class households vulnerable to the inevitable swings of the market.

And as the holders of the family checkbooks, it is these middle class moms that know the real story behind their own debt levels and the strength of their household earnings.

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But then again as these moms are now learning, you can't borrow your way to prosperity.

Because no matter how hard you try, it just won't work in the long run.

But try consumers have.

In fact, U.S. consumer debt has almost doubled to $2.16 trillion dollars as of last October from about $1.3 trillion in 1998 according to figures from the Federal Reserve.

And staggering as that figure is that does not even count the housing debt. That, of course dwarfs everything else. It too has nearly doubled to $9 trillion since 2000.

Taken together these figures add up to a crushing $11 trillion + dollars of household debt.

But as troublesome as these figures are there are other reasons to worry. Because the ugly truth behind these numbers is this: consumer debt has consistently exceeded disposable income over the past half decade at a 4.5% annualized rate.

In short, we spend more than we earn. Way more. And it's the reason that as a nation we have had a negative savings rate for the past 15 months.

And that in and of itself is no small feat.

In fact, the savings rate has been negative for an entire year only twice before in our history. The years were 1932 and 1933. Two of the hardest years that we've ever endured.

And for those of you that don't remember these years ask your grandparents about them. They will probably remember.

The difference now is that their problems weren't caused by new kitchens, SUV's, in ground pools, flat screen TV's and trips to Mexico

But it is here, nonetheless, where we find ourselves today.

Because the truth is the housing bubble hasn't existed on its own. It gave birth to another more devious offspring, the consumption bubble.

And it came to be along side the skyrocketing value of home prices. Simply put, we believed the hype. We were wealthier. Everybody was. And we spent a lot of that money by adding on to our loans.

In fact, some $600 billion dollars of home equity debt was borrowed in 2004 alone. It accounted for some 40% of the growth in gross domestic product that year. Amazingly, it was up from the $439 billion borrowed in 2003.

Simply put, that's a lot of cashing out.

And of course, it didn't end there because people simply couldn't push themselves away from the punch bowl.

After all why should they have stopped? Their homes were their ticket to the party and they were headed higher. Everybody told them so.

So instead of stopping it went even deeper.

In fact, these recently released lender refinance figures prove it.

Because in May 2004, the value of the average refinance was about $333,000. Which at that time was no small sum. But even so it went even higher in May 2005, when it climbed another 17 percent to $390,000.

But even then it wasn't finished because in May 2006, it went higher still, up an additional 7 percent, to $417,000.

Needless to say it financed quite a party. The kind of party that you wake up from wondering not only what you did, but how you got there.

But as the moms now correctly suspect, that party is definitely over because the bubble has sprung a leak.

In fact it has popped.

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Because not only have sales dramatically cooled, but new data suggests that prices themselves have begun a steep decline also.

In fact, in a report released yesterday, by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) said that last months paltry 1.17% increase in home prices was the smallest since 1999. But more ominous than that was this gem: It represented the sharpest quarter to quarter pull back since OFHEO began the index in 1975.

So, clearly the momentum has shifted. The bubble as it seems was real after all. And moms everywhere know it and are worried about it.

And as well they should be, because shrinking home values will have the net effect of closing the home value ATM for quite some time. It may even wipe out their net worth entirely.

But even then that is not all of the sour milk that the market has yet to deliver to the door steps of moms everywhere.

Because, you see, not only are home values dropping, and trapping families with little or no equity, but house payments across the land will be rising also.

That's because not only did many people spend too much money, they also borrowed it at adjustable rates. In fact, according to recent data as much as 30% of all home loans are ARMS.

And as sure as the sun will rise, these ARM's will rise also.

Just next year an incredible $1 trillion worth of home loans-some 11% of all outstanding debt- will adjust for the first time. And to the surprise of no one it will do so at much higher rates.

This of course will squeeze the average middle class household even further.

Take for instance the average homeowner in the brave new world of housing finance.

He has a $300,000 adjustable rate due to adjust next year.

When it does it will push his interest rate up on average a full 2% points. This will increase his payments some $400.00 per month and suck another $4,800 out of his checkbook every year. But since his income is flat he simply will not be able to afford it to afford the increase.

And incredibly, interest-only and option arm holders will have it even worse. After all, these folks took the biggest risks of all. These poor borrowers may see their payments nearly double!

And in doing so, many will be pushed to the brink.

In fact, it will be like a massive tax cut in reverse.

And for those, struggling to keep their heads above the water, it will be the tug that finally pulls them to the bottom

In short, it is the makings of a middle class nightmare. It is exactly what these "mortgage moms" are worried about.

And while a few politicians may feel their wrath this November, it will be nothing compared to what may happen in November 2008.

Because this is really just the beginning. By 2008 these ladies are really going to be annoyed.

In fact, their wrath might even be enough to put another Clinton in the White House.

She feels our pain you know.

Besides you don't really expect anyone to take responsibility for their own actions now do you?

 

 

 

 

 




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