According to a report this morning, the Spectrem millionaire investor confidence index fell to its lowest level in more than a year as wealthy U.S. investors worried about politics and unemployment.
The Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index fell 11 points in August to -18, its lowest level since June 2009, when it fell a record 18 points to -20 shortly after the S&P 500 index hit a 12-year low.
Meanwhile, the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index which measures the outlook of households with $500,000 or more in investable assets, fell 4 points in August to a mildly bearish -20, its third-straight monthly decline.
“The millionaires' decline is particularly troubling since it suggests millionaires, typically more sophisticated than the broader affluent population, are reverting to a bearish frame of mind." said George H. Walper, Jr., President of Spectrem Group.
So what do all these folks know that David Rosenberg doesn’t know? Apparently not much.
True to form, Rosenberg is as bearish as ever….
From CNBC by Jeff Cox entitled: Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenburg
Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains.
But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg.
Rosenberg calls current economic conditions "a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession," and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered "euphoric response."
"Such is human nature and nobody can be blamed for trying to be optimistic; however, in the money management business, we have a fiduciary responsibility to be as realistic as possible about the outlook for the economy and the market at all times," he said.
The 1929-33 recession saw six quarterly bounces in GDP with an average gain of 8 percent, sending the stock market to a 50 percent rally in early 1930 as investors thought the worst had passed.
"False premise," Rosenberg said. "And guess what? We may well be reliving history here. If you're keeping score, we have recorded four quarterly advances in real GDP, and the average is only 3%."
Rosenberg points out that the "overall economic malaise" has come despite aggressive efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy through rate cuts.
"How's that for a reality check," Rosenberg said. "It's not too late, by the way, to shift course if you have stayed long this market."
Like or not, that is the reality.
And no matter how many times you try to slap a happy face on it, the economy and the markets are as tenuous as ever.
Related Articles:
Drawing Parallels to the Great Depression
To learn more about Wealth Daily click here
