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Peter Schiff: U.S. Political Risk a Reality

Crony Capitalism and Political Risk

By Sam Hopkins
Monday, June 15th, 2009

Today we bring you a brand-new guest column from Wealth Daily friend and best-selling author Peter Schiff.  In his article below, Peter reflects on how politics directly affects your money and where you choose to put it.

For an international example, voters in the world's biggest democracy — India — sent a pro-growth message by re-electing the Congress party this May.

The Congress party's sweeping victory will allow Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to pass market-oriented reforms. The vote also signaled political stability despite the terrorist attacks in Mumbai last November.

As Singh's supporters danced in the streets, international investors screamed, "Buy, buy, buy!"

The U.S.-traded Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund ETF (NYSE:EPI) rocketed to a one-day gain of over 23% on the news, piling globalized profits onto an already amazing quarter for the country's Sensex benchmark index. Check out the 3-month chart below to see how the mid-May election spike sticks out:

EPI India ETF 3 month chart

So, in the eyes of diversified international investors, Indian electoral politics this spring led to tremendous upside gains.

But there is, of course, a dark side to political economics... and that's political risk.

Political risk could be a coup in Thailand, a nationalization program in Venezuela, or a pipeline bombing in Nigeria that drives local markets down and sends foreign money flying.

Iran's current electoral turmoil would be a perfect example, but you are actually insulated from political risk in Iranian investments by the fact that you can't invest there.

Yet, political risk can rear its head anywhere. And as Peter writes today, the most immediate and worrisome case of political risk is unfolding right here in the United States.

Now, word has it that Peter is considering a run for Senate in his home state of Connecticut.

For the time being, though, Peter continues to be a leading voice on the connection between politics and profits, and we're happy to bring you his insights once again.

Regards,

sig
Sam Hopkins
International Editor

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Political Risk Hits Property Rights
Peter Schiff

"Crony capitalism" is a term often applied to foreign nations where government interference circumvents market forces. The practice is widely associated with tin-pot dictators and second-rate economies. In such a system, support for the ruling regime is the best and only path to economic success. Who you know supersedes what you know, and favoritism trumps the rule of law.

Unfortunately, last week's events demonstrate that the phrase now more aptly describes our own country.

On Monday, the Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal from Chrysler's secured creditors based on the government's argument that the needs of other stakeholders outweighed those of a few creditors. In this case, the Administration concluded the interests of the United Auto Workers outweighed the interests of the Indiana teachers and firemen whose pension fund sued to block the restructuring. Given the enormous financial support that the UAW poured into the Obama campaign, such partiality is hardly surprising.

When making their investment in Chrysler just a few months ago, the Indiana pension fund agreed to commit capital because of the specific assurances received from the company. In allowing this sham bankruptcy to be crammed through the courts, we have shredded the vital principal of the rule of law, and have become a nation of men, rather than one of laws.

The risk that legal contracts can now be arbitrarily set aside will make investors think twice before committing capital to distressed corporations. Oftentimes enforcing contracts imposes hardships. That's precisely why we have contracts.

Without absolute faith that deals will be honored, it will be extremely difficult for U.S. companies to borrow money. This will be particularly true for those companies already struggling with too much debt. Without the ability to issue secured debt, how will such companies access the necessary capital to turn around? If secured creditors cannot count on the courts to enforce their claims, they will not put their capital at risk. What good is being a secured creditor if courts can allow the assets securing your claim to be sold for the benefit of others?

Another problem with the government imposing losses on secured Chrysler creditors is that in its bailouts of financial companies (like Citigroup and AIG), the government took steps to specifically pay back creditors, even when those creditors should have been wiped out. This inconsistency and lack of equal protection further undermines faith in our economy.

An Uneven Playing Field for Creditors

The message here is clear: loan money to financial entities with friends in Washington and no matter how risky the loan, taxpayers will bail you out if it goes bad. However, loan money to a unionized manufacturer, even if prudently secured by real assets, and you have as much chance of getting your money back as finding Jimmy Hoffa's body.

As if this wasn't bad enough, testimony on Thursday from former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis revealed a concerted effort on the part of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to pressure Lewis into hiding relevant financial information regarding Merrill Lynch losses from B of A shareholders. Recently released e-mails make it clear that the government threatened to remove corporate leaders if they failed to go through with the merger and keep quiet about the losses.

Again, the justification for the interference seemed to be the "greater economic good" the merger would serve. The right of B of A shareholders to be informed that their company was about to buy a financial black hole was clearly considered to be an acceptable sacrifice.

More importantly, the fact that two of the highest-ranking government officials can conspire to violate both securities laws and private property rights is abhorrent to everything America supposedly stands for. If they get away with it, which I believe they will, the precedent and the message will be chilling.

As a broker who specializes in foreign investments, I am always wary of political risk. I must consider how the threat of arbitrary government action could undermine the value of my investments. However, recent events show that political risk is now greater here than abroad, and U.S. assets, which have historically traded at premium valuations based on faith in our legal system, will soon trade at discounts to reflect this new threat. The fear of having contracts abrogated or property rights violated when doing so serves some contrived greater good will substantially raise our cost of capital and further reduce our competitiveness.

Invest wisely,

Peter Schiff

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar, read my newest book "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets." Click here to order your copy now.

And you can download my free Special Report, "Peter Schiff's Five Favorite Investment Choices for the Next Five Years," at http://www.europac.net/report/index_fivefavorites.asp.

 






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Comments:

Comment by Tijax7 on 2009-06-15
I agree 100%. No confidence ...no economy. Period. Thanks go to B.O. for this mess!
Comment by Gene Fischer on 2009-06-15
Rarely have I read such hogwash. the financial advisors of the Indiana pension fund should reimbursae the loss. Antone investing in Chrysler in the past two years had to know they were going bankrupt and the CONSERVATIVE
Supreme Court(not polkitically beholden to anyone except the Conservatives who installed most of them) made the ruling, not Obama et.al.
And exactly the right decision was made in having BOA take over ML. Can you imagine the mess we would be in if ML went under?
Comment by ARTIE1004 on 2009-06-15
Amen. Amen. Amen. For the life of me I cannot understand why the outcry about these actions has been so muffled. Perhaps the state-run media doesn't wish to report on it and the general public just doesn't care. Only people who know and understand investing and economics are troubled by this, and they rightly should be. This IS an example of the end of America as we know it.
Comment by bert on 2009-06-15
Another impetus quickening our
"banana republic" status. And investors are already leery of the dollar. A third nail in the coffin, the first being our massive debt.
Comment by Michael DuPree on 2009-06-15
Schiff writes, "In allowing this sham bankruptcy to be crammed through the courts, we have shredded the vital principal of the rule of law, and have become a nation of men, rather than one of laws." Are not "laws" ALWAYS made by "men," be they male and/or female? The "Rule of Law" is a Myth and Sham. There is only ONE true "Rule of Law"--Buyer Beware.
Comment by Kris on 2009-06-16
I blame the public schools for a lot of the problem. High school students graduate with no knowledge whatsoever of financial markets, a subject which could and should be taught in high school. Most adults don't know the meaning of a P/E ratio and have never heard of puts and calls, or collateralized debt obligations. They have no idea what the national debt is or the annual budget deficit or trade deficit. If they were better educated, the country might not be in this mess.
Comment by sharonsj on 2009-06-16
I didn't now that Obama sat on the Supreme Court. If you had proof that any of the justices profited from their decision, then I'd pay attention to your claims. However I agree that the shareholders got screwed.
Comment by Jay Hendon on 2009-06-22
What Peter Schiff says should not be dismissed "out of hand". To see why I say that, look at what he was saying about the economy, sub-prime mortgages, etc. in the recent past at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVP_sgCETo . His was a lone voice; he has insight and courage.