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Economic Recovery in Doubt

Insights from the Week in Investing

By Ian Cooper
Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Welcome to the Wealth Daily Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Wealth Daily and sister publication articles.


Confusing traders and aggravating the poor bears to no end, schizophrenic markets were all over the place this week.

And while government intervention and money managers chasing performance have been suggested as the cause, it has more to do with the psychology of the herd. . .

Seems like it just takes one big "sheep" (Bernanke, for example), to yell "all clear" and the herd follows, thinking all is alright.

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But are we really recovering, as Bernanke and President Obama may have us believe?

We may not be. . . but then again, it depends on who you ask.

More on this thought in just a moment.

For now, in case you've missed any of the recent top stories from Wealth Daily and our companion publications, we've included them below.

Copenhagen Climate Conference: Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change
Editor Sam Hopkins highlights major new developments in the UN emissions reduction talks and the trillions of dollars pushing for change. . . 

The Economic Stimulus Package: $11.3 Billion for Renewable Energy
Energy & Capital Editor Nick Hodge talks about "profit bridges" and the investment opportunities cropping up as a result of the economic stimulus package. . .

Jim Cramer Said "Sell" this Stock: But Cramer's Mistake is Cooper's Gain
In fact, Ian Cooper's readers have already cashed in for 150% and 40% gains on the Bakken oil stock that Cramer blew. (The "Mad Money" 'genius' thought the stock was a natural gas play!)

Chesapeake Energy Stock: Buy, Sell or Hold — Chesapeake Energy is on the Rise
Wealth Daily Editor Steve Christ takes a look at natural gas prices and makes the call on shares of Chesapeake Energy.

Gold Baron Reveals His Most Precious Secret: You Can Double Your Investment Dollars with His Latest Find
This gold baron traded physical gold for 11 years. . . and single-handedly turned everyday investors into millionaires. Now he's revealing his most coveted secret: an investment play that pays two-to-one in gains.

The Next Ticking Time Bomb: Prepare for Things to Get Ugly. . . Real Ugly
We've been warning about the coming fallout from Option ARMs and showing readers how to profit. . . and explaining that there's further downside for housing. And now, after all this time, the federal government and states are just now preparing themselves for the next foreclosure crisis in our housing malaise.

Emerging Europe ETF: Poland Leads the Way to Emerging Europe Profits
Editor Sam Hopkins dissects a top emerging market ETF to come out with a much better play on leading emerging Europe market growth.

The Student Loan Bubble Bursts: Is this the End of Private Student Loans?
Wealth Daily Editor Ian Cooper explores the hefty downside risk for student-loan companies and why they could be forced out of the market in the latest bubble to hit the economy.

The Silver Stock that Paid Annual Gains of 852% Over 9 Straight Years
Investors knew that a massive silver strike would give this unknown company the fifth-largest silver mine in the world. . . a mine expected to produce 10.9 million ounces a year.


———————————

It's not all bad news, though.

The Fed just upgraded their view of the economy, declaring "economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn."

Great news, right?

Unfortunately, once again, Bernanke — the same guy that thought subprime wouldn't spill over into the greater economy — might be calling a very fragile glass as half full.

The Fed can tell us the economy is fine, but actions speak louder than words. If the Fed really thought everything was alright, why are we still on life support? Why else would the Fed pledge that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period"?

Nothing has changed in the marketplace to warrant bullish sentiment. Maybe that's why the FEd removed the word "sustainable" from the September statement?

Perhaps the FOMC realized that deficit spending cannot sustain growth?

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Three to Four Million Delayed Foreclosures. . . But Housing is Bottoming?

There's a "shadow market" of about 2.7 million homes that are in foreclosure, but have yet to be reclaimed by lenders, according to a Wall Street Journal article.

While it's no secret that banks are continuing to kick the can down the road, here's what they and the economy must still contend with:

As of July, mortgage companies hadn't begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn't yet acquired the property. The figures don't include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

And, according to a Bank of America spokesperson:

We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running" for a loan modification or other alternatives. . . Foreclosure sales had dropped to "abnormally low" levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures.

And just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. . .

It looks like another government arm will be outstretched for yet another handout.

"We are currently considering all options, including borrowing from the Treasury," said FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Barr. It seems the out of control banking system collapse has put quite a dent in the FDIC insurance fund.

With maybe $10 billion on hand and a wild string of bank failures in our future, the FDIC can either borrow from the Treasury (it can borrow up to $500 billion through 2010), or raise taxes on the banks.

Heck, the Democrats are even trying to give relief to the financially-strapped Postal Service, which could be allowed to defer $4 billion in payments that are due at month's end, for employee retirement benefits.

But while the news seems dismal and depressing, remember this: There's always a bull market somewhere.
And we'll find it. . . especially as the dollar is dismantled.

Right now, as long as Bernanke and President Obama think every thing is okay, we should be fine. . .shouldn't we?

Good Investing,

Ian L. Cooper
http://www.wealthdaily.com/

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