Chinese Carrier Killer Has DoD Worried

Written By Brian Hicks

Posted January 30, 2015

Military tech advances faster than anything else for two main reasons…

First and foremost, nobody invests as much into any single sector of the economy, be it public or private, as the U.S. invests in the defense industry.

The second reason — perhaps no less important than the first — is the very nature of the industry.

Competition between companies and nations is constant and universal, but when it comes to high-tech weaponry, the cost of being in second place is higher here than in any other segment of human endeavor.

So the result of this blistering rate of expenditure and the constant, compulsive need to one-up the next guy at every step is a highly dynamic, evolving landscape where every moving part changes how all the others behave.

Here is just the latest example…

Several years ago, rumors of a Chinese “carrier-killing” ballistic missile began to filter down to the open media — enough to cause a bit of a stir within our own military community.

It created some noise because while anti-ship missiles — even those of the nuclear variety — are nothing new at all, a ballistic missile built for this mission has never been seen before.

Let me explain…

Since their advent in the 1960s, guided anti-ship missiles have typically been designed to “sea-skim” — which involves approaching targets as low as possible in order to avoid detection by radar and to strike as close as possible to the ship’s waterline, thus maximizing the chances of a fatal hit.

This sinking of the HMS Sheffield during the Falklands conflict by a single, French-built Exocet missile fired from an Argentine fighter plane demonstrates just how effective these weapons can be:

sheffield

And since then, anti-ship missile technology has blossomed. Today’s most deadly anti-ship missiles can fly for thousands of miles at up to four times the speed of sound and are smart enough to evade multiple layers of defense.

However, as the technology on the other side advanced — particularly surface-to-air missiles, lasers, and fast-firing automated Gatling guns for defense at ranges of a miles or less — it made mission profiles for even the most potent anti-ship missiles far more challenging than before.

A Hybrid Killer

So the Chinese decided to circumvent all of the shortcomings of traditional anti-ship missiles by introducing something nobody had seen before: the modified Dong Feng 21 ballistic missile.

The main difference here is that unlike your typical anti-ship missiles, the modified Dong Feng approaches its target from above at speeds approaching Mach 10.

dongfeng

With a range of 1,200 miles, this weapon can reach its target in just 10 minutes, dropping out of the sky like a bolt of lightening with nothing standing in its way.

This scared Western analysts.

Even without a convincing display of the technology (so far, the missile has only proven its ability to hit a static carrier-sized target in the middle of the Gobi desert), the mere possibility of such a weapon posed a serious problem for the U.S. Navy, whose carrier groups have long been the symbol of America’s unmatched ability to project power globally.

The Navy, for all of its force, has no defense against such a weapon.

To make matters worse, the modified Dong Feng 21, real or not, is actually not alone in this “theoretical” class of guided missiles.

The Russians have their own equivalent, and it’s anything but unproven.

iskander

Introduced in 2006, the SS-26 Iskander (NATO code name Stone) is a modern tactical ballistic missile capable of speeds up to 2 km/second, or Mach 6.

It’s carried on a mobile launch vehicle, can attack targets from more than 300 miles away, and, most importantly, has a proven margin of error of between 16 and 23 feet.

That means that if you’re in Washington, D.C. and somebody fires this thing at you from New York at 12 noon, it will place its 1,500 lb. conventional, EMP (electromagnetic pulse), or nuclear warhead within a car-length of where you’re sitting by 12:06 p.m.

Led to its target by a combination of GLONASS (Russian GPS) and terminal homing guidance, the Iskander is capable of far, far more accuracy than is needed to hit a moving carrier.

Compounding the problem, these weapons are in mass production, come in several variations, and may eventually fall into the hands of less-than-friendly regimes such as Iran and Syria.

For Every Problem, A Solution

So this is a problem, right?

Well, in the world of military tech, problems give engineers a reason to get up early and stay in the lab late.

Right now, as a response to this emerging ballistic missile threat, there is indeed an answer in the works.

U.S. defense giant Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems have come together to build what may be the world’s first compact, rapidly deployable answer to tactical ballistic threats.

Their new weapon, nicknamed the “Stunner” (or “David’s Sling” for the Israeli version), may not be capable of bringing down full-scale intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), whose warheads detach from the rocket body outside of the atmosphere and scream towards their targets at upwards of Mach 20, but it can, nevertheless, do everything from taking out SCUD-like threats to eliminating 75-mm Katyusha-style rockets commonly used by Hamas in over-the-border attacks.

davidssling

This new weapon effectively increases the protective umbrella offered by existing Iron Dome batteries by a factor of almost 30, at the same time giving its users the ability to hit fast, higher-flying, more substantial threats.

As of now, David’s Sling will only be in service as a civil defense weapon to protect cities from short- to medium-range ballistic missile attacks.

With Rafael leading the way in developing this weapon, its obvious testing ground will be Israeli airspace — where it is likely to get far more practical testing than it ever will on an American missile range.

The technology, however, is jointly developed and jointly owned, which means it will probably be the mainstay of airspace defense for decades to come.

And given the rise of highly precise, highly mobile ballistic missiles like the Dong Feng and the Iskander, it isn’t just likely that systems like this will eventually make it onboard American carrier groups — it’s almost guaranteed.

As a counterpoint, I would like to mention that things like lasers and rail guns are now also approaching that point of technological maturity where they will be seen more and more on the battlefield. But even if such systems are developed, you can be certain that the DoD — with its budget of over $700 billion/year — will not scoff at the idea of defensive redundancy.

David’s Sling is expected to go into service this year, with variants designed for the optimization of specific tasks to follow soon thereafter.

You don’t need to like military technology to see these patterns emerging…

You just need to understand that with or without you, it will continue doing what it does.

To your wealth,

Brian Hicks Signature

Brian Hicks

Brian is a founding member and President of Angel Publishing and investment director for the income and dividend newsletter The Wealth Advisory. He writes about general investment strategies for Tech Investing Daily, Wealth Daily and Energy & Capital. Known as the “original bull on America,” Brian is also the author of the 2008 book, Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century. In addition to writing about the economy, investments and politics, Brian is also a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox and countless radio shows. For more on Brian, take a look at his editor’s page.

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