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T. Boone Pickens Next Prediction

$100 Oil By the End of 2007?

By Brian Hicks
Friday, October 19th, 2007

Dear Wealth Daily reader:

Brian Hicks featured on CNBCOn the 20th anniversary of the greatest stock market meltdown in American history, your editor was again called on by the talking heads to explain why oil is trading above $90 a barrel: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=567548279&play=1

To my amazement, there are still those who think the current price of oil is illusionary... that it's a bubble... that there's no truth to peak oil.

After my interview on CNBC this morning, Joe Kernan was quoted as saying "Canada is the equivalent of 2 Saudi Arabias" and "I (Joe, not me) must be in denial [over dwindling oil supplies].

In other words, he doesn't believe me when I say that oil will be trading above $100 a barrel within the next 12 to 24 months.

Of course, I'm just a dumb kid from Baltimore. What do I know?!? The closest thing to an oil well I've been to is, uh, the gel I put into my hair!

But when T. Boone Pickens speaks on CNBC, everybody listens.

One of the most respected observers on peak oil, Boone is a man with over four decades of experience in the oil business and has earned his reputation by making prescient predictions about the oil market. His Dallas-based hedge fund, BP Capital, has had returns exceeding 800 percent since 2001.

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In April he spoke frankly to the Petroleum Professional Development Center at Midland College in Texas:

"Yes, I believe in peak oil," he said. "Matt Simmons and I talked today and we're on the same team.

If, as Daniel Yergin believes, there's so much more oil left, why doesn't oil production move up instead of staying flat? Global demand is 85 million barrels [per day], or 31 billion barrels a year.

The world hasn't replaced the oil it's been producing since 1985. So if there's so much oil left, I don't understand why production hasn't gone up. All the big fields are declining and all the current drilling does no more than hold off the decline. So the next step is decline.

We can't hold on to 85 million barrel a day production."

Looking out through the end of 2008, he sees oil demand rising to 88 million barrels a day but production staying flat, sending prices back into record high territory.

In a March 2007 interview at the Forbes magazine CEO conference, Pickens summed up the situation like this: "The world has been looked at. There's still oil to be found, but not in the quantities we've seen in the past.

The big fields have been found and the smaller fields, well, there's not enough of them to replenish the base....If I'm right, we're already at the peak. The price will have to go up."

Profit... don't panic,

Brian Hicks

P.S. A few months ago, Boone made his infamous "$80 a barrel before I'm 80" call on the price of oil. A few days ago, he made a call for $100 oil before the end of 2007. I can honestly say that I don't know if oil will hit $100 by the end of the year... but I'll never bet against Boone.


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Comments:

Comment by L. Hauber on 2007-10-23
Enjoyed your article and am sure that oil will climb up as high as it can. Let's face it, oil is the one power that makes our world tick. Our entire life is based on oil and the by-products it produces, which is just about everything.
If you get a chance watch the informative DVD named " A Crude Awakening". A documentary by 2 filmmakers. It will open your eyes as to what has happened and what eventually may take place.

Comment by chuck novak on 2007-10-22
Brian, Enjoy your insights into energy and oil especially.At some price point alternative energy options begin to look appealing until OPEC senses that some fledgeing energy newbe is taken seriously by the market or goverment. Then OPEC can reduce oil prices and stop any alternate energy concept from attracting capitol necessary to actually commence developing that energy source. If they make a better mouse trap it will sell, so goes the saying, however only if the old mouse trap either becomes ineffective or the new device is sooo cheap as to make it impossible for the previous mouse trap to be sold profittably.
Actually BRIAN, OPEC holds the Jolly Green Gaint by the technicals when it comes to turning his collective efforts to develope and market any new al-
ternative energy technology.
My take on this could be called the 'moon' shot or the 'JFK' concept. The USA commenced an all out effort to beat the Russians to the moon because of sputnik and that world conquest would likely be the prize. This project cost Americans dearly but the results were clear, "One small step for man, a Gaint step for mankind"

Unless we've been hoodwinked concerning world oil reserves, especially in north America, we'd best call in the dogs and develope an energy source,i.e., Solar/coal/necular/bio/geo/corn whatever, real soon, dam the capitolists full speed ahead!Do you believe the world markets would react very positively if an afforable energy source were discovered?

Chuck Novak, regular reader.

Comment by Geri on 2007-10-21
1st sentence - NOT you're; your editor. Sorry. English professor.

Comment by Bob cloke on 2007-10-20
Fantastic
I am not a paid subscribing customer but your group of daily emails are most informative and read daily.

Thanks
Bob Cloke

Comment by ALEXANDER MITCHELL on 2007-10-20
There's no need to depend for Energy-Oil-soley. As our population increases, it will be necessary to move on. There is the Sun, there are corn and other formenting sugars. I'm not that concerned about it.

Comment by Tim Hall on 2007-10-20
Sanity?
Technology allows a car to take 2 people + 100lb luggage at 60mph @ 60 mpg, not hybrids either.
If you look at the freeways why is America driving 1 person per car @ 20 - 30 mpg?

Taxation could be your saviour. Drop income tax, increase energy tax. Let the free market do the rest.

Comment by r j goddard on 2007-10-19
totally agree, have been an energy "addict" for 30+ yrs, world traveled, middle east/se asia/ africa, [not as a tourist], and total "believer" in Pickens, Simmons . . . [imho] energy shortfalls present the greatest threat to US/global stability and security in the long run, and long is getting shorter . . .